Most Recent Stingy News
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| Firms are the smart money |
| 11/24/25 12:09 PM EST | Markets |
| "Yet, while not infallible, corporate issuance turns out to be one of the most powerful signals we have for predicting long-term returns. Firms are the smart money, and it pays to imitate them. Thus, when firms are buying their own stock, you should generally buy as well. When firms are selling, you should generally sell as well." |
| More Markets: Tells from the crypto crash |
| Lie to me |
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| Growth indices miss the mark |
| 11/24/25 11:46 AM EST | Growth Investing |
| "Portfolios composed of fast-growing firms significantly outperformed the market over the full period, irrespective of valuation. In contrast, slow growth and expensive firms (the segment most vulnerable to misclassification as growth) underperformed by a wide margin. Thus, growth stock selection should be based on actual business fundamentals rather than market pricing. Metrics such as growth in sales, profits, and research and development spending provide more reliable indicators of true growth potential than price-based measures." |
| More Growth Investing: Growth vs Glamour |
| Interest rates and growth stocks |
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| Tells from the crypto crash |
| 11/24/25 11:43 AM EST | Markets |
| "What is Bitcoin good for? It isn't money - that is, it isn't a medium of exchange, something you can use to make payments. It isn't a hedge against inflation. It isn't a hedge against financial risks - on the contrary, the price of Bitcoin has generally moved in the same direction as the AI-related stocks driving the stock market these days, but with even greater volatility. To the extent that Bitcoin has a use case, it is covering your financial tracks: crypto facilitates anonymous transactions that don't leave a paper trail. Such transactions aren't necessarily criminal, but many are." |
| More Markets: Lie to me |
| Brokers and bubbles |
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| Lie to me |
| 11/24/25 11:07 AM EST | Markets |
| "Whether it's extrapolating unsustainable earnings growth, trusting the Fed will always come to the rescue, or refusing to mark asset prices to market, investors in late-cycle booms have a tendency to believe the unbelievable. In our view, we are in another such period, with participants eagerly riding the wave of easy money and seemingly unlimited gains." |
| More Markets: Brokers and bubbles |
| Buying at all-time highs |
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| Brokers and bubbles |
| 11/17/25 4:02 PM EST | Markets |
| "How can you tell if you're in a speculative bubble? Well, bubbles are all about frenzied trading activity. And who benefits from frenzied trading activity? Brokers and other providers of trading services. Just as it's profitable to sell picks and shovels during a gold rush, it's profitable to sell trading services during a speculative bubble. Thus, when retail brokerages are extremely successful, that's a clue that you may be in a bubble." |
| More Markets: Buying at all-time highs |
| We're number two! |
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| Buying at all-time highs |
| 11/17/25 3:45 PM EST | Markets |
| "In other words, when you buy at an all-time high you are no more likely to see a future lower price than buying on any other trading day." |
| More Markets: We're number two! |
| Making money from cognitive dissonance |
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| Grocery prices |
| 11/17/25 3:30 PM EST | Economy |
| "telling people that things are great when their personal experience says otherwise is different. Are violent mobs overrunning Portland? If you watch Fox News, you might believe that. Are groceries 'way down,' as Trump keeps insisting? Anyone who does their own food shopping - even Republicans - knows that this isn't true." |
| More Economy: Inflation blindness |
| The Sahm rule as a recession indicator |
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| Dumb money triumphant |
| 11/03/25 5:00 PM PM EST | Behaviour |
| "Is the U.S. stock market in a bubble? I doubt we're there yet, but one sign of speculative froth is the recent success of retail investors. On average, retail investors exhibit anti-skill in their stock selection decisions, meaning that their holdings underperform the market. So when retail investors are winning, that tells you that market conditions are unusual." |
| More Behaviour: Little Rules About Big Things |
| Let's get happy |
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| Narrow spreads |
| 11/03/25 4:58 PM EST | Bonds |
| "At today's levels, we think high-yield credit offers little value to investors. The yield of the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index sits at just 2.6% above Treasuries of similar duration, within spitting distance of the all-time narrow level of 2.3%. The last time spreads were this tight was May 2007 during one of the biggest risk chases in credit history." |
| More Bonds: F.A.C.O. |
| Reconsidering core bonds |
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| We're number two! |
| 11/03/25 4:56 PM EST | Markets |
| "All in all, this whole confrontation has been a demonstration of Chinese strength and American weakness. Add in the way that Trump has alienated our allies, and it seems fair to say that America is no longer the world's leading power. Unless a future president can engineer a miraculous recovery in our global stature, the future now belongs to China." |
| More Markets: Making money from cognitive dissonance |
| Straight talk about circular deals |
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| Making money from cognitive dissonance |
| 11/03/25 4:54 PM EST | Markets |
| "A simple trading strategy that invests after earnings have been released in companies with a Sell consensus rating and positive earnings surprises, and shorts companies with a Buy consensus rating that missed earnings estimates, creates a much larger performance than doing the opposite or the traditional standard post-earnings announcement drift strategy. Indeed, between 1997 and 2023, the average monthly abnormal return was about 1%. That annualises to 12.6%." |
| More Markets: Straight talk about circular deals |
| Save your money? |
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| Currency valuations |
| 11/03/25 4:52 PM EST | World |
| "Many US investors get paid in dollars, invest in dollar-denominated assets, and don't spend much time thinking about the relative attractiveness of the dollar versus other currencies. But for investors, the dollar is simply another asset, with a yield and a risk profile that can be compared to other currencies." |
| More World: Making China great |
| Japan's dividend and buyback surge |
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| Straight talk about circular deals |
| 10/20/25 4:41 PM EST | Markets |
| "A stock market bubble is not about the circular flow of money in a closed system. A stock market bubble is about the flow of money from optimistic/gullible investors into the stock market. Ouroboros, the snake eating its own tail, is not a good model for a stock market bubble. A better model is an anglerfish: using a bioluminescent appendage, the anglerfish lures unwary prey and then gobbles it down. You can't have an anglerfish without prey. You can't have a casino without customers. And you can't have a bubble without inflows." |
| More Markets: Save your money? |
| Challenge of diversification |
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| Save your money? |
| 10/20/25 4:32 PM EST | Markets |
| "My grandfather's advice to 'save your money' made sense throughout his life and most of mine. But today, with inflation lingering, asset prices soaring, and policy pushing the economy to run hot, the choice between saving and spending has become more complicated. Saving is still important, but it may also be worth asking when spending makes sense - whether to get ahead of wealth-driven demand and price hikes, or to avoid being caught holding overvalued stocks. In some cases, spending your money, or monetizing inflated financial assets, may actually be the more sensible option." |
| More Markets: Challenge of diversification |
| Opposing ideas |
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| Challenge of diversification |
| 10/20/25 4:25 PM EST | Markets |
| "The promise of diversification is higher returns with lower volatility. The challenge for investors is that the diversification value of the major investable alternative has varied widely over time, both as measured by ability to contribute to portfolio return and by correlation with equities." |
| More Markets: Opposing ideas |
| About the low volatility factor |
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| Opposing ideas |
| 10/20/25 3:46 PM EST | Markets |
| "International small value, in particular, stands out as a rare combination of high returns, moderate volatility, and low correlation to US equitiesâ€"an especially valuable mix for investors seeking true diversification. Using this data set, the Sharpe-optimal mix of these equity strategies over the trailing five years (again, with perfect foresight) would have been 35% US large value, 29% NASDAQ, 19% international small-cap value, and 17% international large-cap value." |
| More Markets: About the low volatility factor |
| Not partying like it's 1999 |
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| Focus on trailing P/Es |
| 10/13/25 3:14 PM EST | Value Investing |
| "my research shows that trailing P/E ratios have superior forecasting ability compared to forward P/E ratios. The reason is simple. Trailing earnings are based on realized earnings, while forward earnings are based on earnings forecasted by analysts." |
| More Value Investing: How flows change factor performance |
| US value trading at a discount |
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| Making China great |
| 10/13/25 1:44 PM EST | World |
| "You might ask why, if China has this much economic leverage, it hasn't exploited it in the past. My answer would be in part that America used to have important strengths that Trump has now thrown away. But perhaps even more important, nobody really wins a trade war. Even if the United States ends up crying uncle and making humiliating concessions - which seems the most likely outcome - China will end up poorer than it would have been if there had never been a trade war in the first place." |
| More World: Japan's dividend and buyback surge |
| The overvalued dollar |
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| AI addendum |
| 10/13/25 1:42 PM EST | Tech |
| "AI is something to keep an eye on. We have a template of prior buildouts as a roadmap, from railroads to the fiber-optic buildout in 2000, from the canal bubble of the 1830s, to the power plant bubble of the 1920s. If the economics don't work, doing it at massive scale doesn't make the economics work any betterâ€"it just takes an industry crisis and makes it into a national economic crisis. Like many things in finance, the outcome remains obvious, it's the timing that is the hard part." |
| More Tech: Good nuke news |
| Driverless taxis records |
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| About the low volatility factor |
| 10/11/25 3:58 PM EST | Markets |
| "The low volatility factor produced an annualized premium of 6.4% with a near-zero beta, and a CAPM alpha of 6.3% per annum - a highly significant result." |
| More Markets: Not partying like it's 1999 |
| In praise of quarterly earnings reports |
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| Not partying like it's 1999 |
| 10/11/25 3:56 PM EST | Markets |
| "However, unlike the tech boom of the 1990s, the current AI boom isn't translating into widespread economic optimism. In fact, Americans are remarkably downbeat about the economy and the future in general. And I think it's worth trying to understand why." |
| More Markets: In praise of quarterly earnings reports |
| Where factors speak loudest |
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