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 06/16   The Stingy News Weekly: June 16, 2024 
 06/15   Useful and overlooked skills 
 06/15   A changing yield curve signal 
 06/15   The C word 
 06/15   Procyclical stocks earn higher returns 
 06/15   Why Haven't Home Prices Dropped? 
 06/09   The Stingy News Weekly: June 9, 2024 
 06/08   Insights on short squeezes 


Most Recent Stingy News

The Stingy News Weekly: June 16, 2024
06/16/24 5:52 PM ESTSNW
This week we have yield curves, real estate, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: June 9, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: June 1, 2024

Useful and overlooked skills
06/15/24 8:38 PM ESTBehaviour
"There's a useful and overlooked skill: Accepting a certain degree of hassle and nonsense when reality demands it."
More Behaviour: Lazy work, good work
On the legacy of Danny Kahneman

A changing yield curve signal
06/15/24 8:15 PM ESTMarkets
"The recessionary implications of the most recent yield curve inversion remain an open question. However, we think a more interesting question is what an inverted yield curve means for asset class and factor returns."
More Markets: Procyclical stocks earn higher returns
Insights on short squeezes

The C word
06/15/24 7:49 PM ESTRetirement
"We can control risk, but we can't eliminate it. I've spent decades managing both financial risk and potential threats to my health. But despite such precautions, sometimes we get blindsided. There have been few cancer occurrences in my family, and it's never been something I had reason to fear. Chance is a cruel mistress."
More Retirement: Buying freedom
What global withdrawal rates teach us

Procyclical stocks earn higher returns
06/15/24 7:19 PM ESTMarkets
"We find that procyclical stocks, whose returns comove with business cycles, earn higher average returns than countercyclical stocks."
More Markets: Insights on short squeezes
Don't bank on the equity risk premium

Why Haven't Home Prices Dropped?
06/15/24 7:13 PM ESTReal Estate
"if you want lower housing prices, I completely understand. But, be careful what you wish for. You just might get it."
More Real Estate: The forever renter
Rent or buy

The Stingy News Weekly: June 9, 2024
06/09/24 2:50 PM ESTSNW
This week we have very long-term returns, short selling, momentum, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: June 1, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: May 25, 2024

Insights on short squeezes
06/08/24 6:23 PM ESTMarkets
"More broadly, portfolios with the highest short interest performed the worst on an absolute and risk-adjusted basis while those with the lowest short interest performed the best"
More Markets: Don't bank on the equity risk premium
Unpacking the Equity Risk Premium

Don't bank on the equity risk premium
06/07/24 6:17 PM ESTMarkets
"If stocks will assuredly outperform bonds over intervals of, say, 20 years or more, where is the risk? And if stocks aren't risky over long intervals, why should their returns exceed the returns on bonds that are not risky?"
More Markets: Unpacking the Equity Risk Premium
Stocks for the long run?

Unpacking the Equity Risk Premium
06/07/24 :6:16 PM ESTMarkets
"Because stocks remain risky regardless of the holding period, stocks often outperform, because investors get compensated for taking that risk. Stocks are a good wager over the long term, on favorable odds. But stocks remain a bet, one that can go bad for any randomly selected investor over their personal time horizon."
More Markets: Stocks for the long run?
The economics of different

Stocks for the long run?
06/07/24 6:03 PM ESTMarkets
"The new historical record reveals that the divergent performance of stocks and bonds from 1946 to 1981 was unique. Nothing like it had ever occurred in the century-and-a-half before. The most recent four decades look quite different, with stock and bond performance again approximating parity."
More Markets: The economics of different
The gold rally

Is short-term reversal dead?
06/07/24 5:59 PM ESTMomentum Investing
"There is just one problem with the short-term reversal effect. It has been missing in action for the last 20 to 30 years."
More Momentum Investing: Momentum and clarity of trend
Momentum works everywhere

The Stingy News Weekly: June 1, 2024
06/01/24 5:37 PM ESTSNW
This week we have retirement, freedom, Kahneman, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: May 25, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: May 19, 2024

Lazy work, good work
06/01/24 2:58 PM ESTBehaviour
"Here's a problem we don't think about enough: Even as more professions look like Rockefeller's - thought jobs that require quiet time to think a problem through - we're stuck in the old world where a good employee is expected to labor, visibly and without interruption."
More Behaviour: On the legacy of Danny Kahneman
Seinfeld on money

The economics of different
06/01/24 2:52 PM ESTMarkets
"With investors piling into passive strategies and chasing many of the best performing stocks, the current bull market in conformity appears invincible. For the remaining active managers, investing differently at this stage of the market cycle can be a career killer. Nevertheless, given valuations and the drivers of the current cycle, we believe the economics of different have rarely been more attractive."
More Markets: The gold rally
The stock market in an election year

Buying freedom
06/01/24 2:25 PM ESTRetirement
"The five ideas above help explain why we should save early in life to prepare ourselves for later, when we might want to change how we spend our days. But that still leaves one question unanswered: Why, come retirement, should our days necessarily involve working part-time?"
More Retirement: What global withdrawal rates teach us
Back to work

On the legacy of Danny Kahneman
06/01/24 2:23 PM ESTBehaviour
"Importantly, Danny Kahneman himself, the one who identified many of the behavioral biases affecting us in the first place, states that awareness of the bias doesn't prevent even him from making the same behavioral mistakes that humans are apt to make."
More Behaviour: Seinfeld on money
Bad financial decisions

The algorithms are broken
06/01/24 2:28 PM ESTTech
"The algorithm is not designed to help me - it just wants to manipulate me for the platform's benefit. When we encounter this in a retail store, it's called the hard sell."
More Tech: Man vs. machine
Time to scrap electric cars?

The Stingy News Weekly: May 25, 2024
05/25/24 4:05 PM ESTSNW
This week we have Zwieg on Graham, electric cars, hockey, gold, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: May 19, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: May 10, 2024

Jason Zweig at Ivey
05/25/24 4:02 PM ESTGraham
"Mr. Zweig discussed the topic, 'The Intelligent Investor: 75 Years Young. What Can We Learn from Graham that Still Matters?'." [Video]
More Graham: Enough: Graham's Lesson
Ben Graham as a quant

The gold rally
05/25/24 2:41 PM ESTMarkets
"They find that gold's price has a near-zero correlation with gold stock used in jewelry, owned by central banks, or in the form of bars and coins. But gold prices have historically had a whopping 0.74 correlation with the amount of gold owned by gold ETFs."
More Markets: The stock market in an election year
Estimating future returns

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The Stingy Stocks beat the index by an average of 4.4 percentage points a year.

2023: New Picks (for subs)
2022: Down 13.8% (for subs)
2021: Up 47.8% (for subs)
2020: Down 32.3% (for subs)
2019: Up 0.0% (for subs)
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2015: Down 1.4%
2014: Up 6.9%
2013: Up 37.8%
2012: Up 10.9%
2011: Down 16.1%
2010: Up 69.4%
2009: Up 64.5%
2008: Down 40.1%
2007: Down 5.5%
2006: Up 28.9%
2005: Up 29.2%
2004: Up 29.8%
2003: Up 33.8%
2002: Down 1.9%

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+9.5%/yr (CAGR)

The Top 200 beat the index by an average of 4.7 percentage points a year.

2023: New Picks (for subs)
2022: Down 3.8% (for subs)
2021: Up 18.7% (for subs)
2020: Down 15.4% (for subs)
2019: Up 5.9% (for subs)
2018: Down 14.5
2017: Up 13.5%
2016: Up 2.8%
2015: Up 2.1%
2014: Up 2.3%
2013: Up 55.0%
2012: Up 13.4%
2011: Down 4.2%
2010: Up 19.7%
2009: Up 41.0%
2008: Down 32.9%
2007: Up 16.2%
2006: Up 37.6%
2005: Up 57.6%

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