Most Recent Stingy News
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| Special treatment for SpaceX |
| 04/30/26 5:04 PM EST | Indexing |
| "We already have a major index with a very short seasoning period. The CRSP total stock market index, used by Vanguard funds, has a seasoning period of five days in some cases. According to Murray and Sammon (2026), this practice produces bad outcomes for index investors. Prices rise prior to inclusion and then fall subsequently; index investors are forced to buy at high prices on day five. They find that in the months following inclusion, prices fall by as much as 10% due to the short seasoning period." |
| More Indexing: Risks of passive dominance |
| Eyes forward |
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| The skip-month mystery |
| 04/30/26 4:19 PM EST | Momentum Investing |
| "By contrast, the 12-0 strategy (which includes the recent month) produced more stable returns across market regimes. This stability came from incorporating the most recent month's information directly into portfolio formation, which appeared to smooth out extreme reactions to prior-month conditions. In addition, the 12â€"0 portfolio slightly surpassed the 12â€"1 portfolio in the full sample." |
| More Momentum Investing: Trend-following still works |
| Is short-term reversal dead? |
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| Long-term money |
| 04/30/26 4:16 PM EST | History |
| "What's common to miss here is that when one generation's life becomes comparatively easier than before, their life does not become objectively easy; they just move on to worrying about higher-order problems that were previously deemed not urgent enough to worry about." |
| More History: Panic season |
| Factor anomalies 1900 to 1925 |
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| U.S. housing starting to crash |
| 04/30/26 4:14 PM EST | Real Estate |
| "Analysis from Residential Club shows that 75% of the largest metro areas in the U.S. saw inflation-adjusted home price declines over the last year. But will this trend continue? And what might we expect from U.S. housing over the next few years? Let's dig in." |
| More Real Estate: The condo crash |
| Bad news for the homebuyers |
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| Positive correlation a terrible reason to add risk |
| 04/30/26 4:07 PM EST | Asness |
| "we generally like bonds as part of an overall portfolio, even with recently higher correlations. There's little else out there that performs as consistently-well during recessions and related environments of falling growth. But if you want to sell bonds and improve the diversification of your portfolio, the leading candidates should be things that are diversifying to equity risk (and ideally to bonds, too, though far less important as, again, bonds don't impact traditional portfolios nearly as much as equities do)." |
| More Asness: Going on in privates |
| Missing the market's N best days |
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| Name changes as a bubble symptom |
| 04/30/26 4:05 PM EST | Markets |
| "Are we currently in a stock market bubble? I doubt it, because I have yet to see a change in major indicators such as issuance behavior. But the minor indicators have been piling up over the past two years, including the success of retail investors, the rise of brokerage stocks, and various violations of the law of one price. The market is getting frothy, at least at its fringes if not in its core." |
| More Markets: America's geriatric stock market |
| Would you rather |
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| The logic of NACHO |
| 04/30/26 4:01 PM EST | World |
| "On Wall Street, TACO - Trump Always Chickens Out - has abruptly been replaced as a favorite meme by NACHO - Not a Chance Hormuz Opens. As a result, oil futures have soared." |
| More World: The Impotence of Drill, Baby, Drill |
| International financial anarchy |
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| America's geriatric stock market |
| 03/30/26 5:29 PM EST | Markets |
| "America is aging. The median age of U.S. residents increased from 30 years in 1980 to 39 years in 2024. Oddly enough, this trend in America's human population is mirrored in America's equity population. By some measures, the age of the U.S. stock market is near all-time highs." |
| More Markets: Would you rather |
| Sanity check |
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| No permanent underclass |
| 03/30/26 5:26 PM EST | Tech |
| "Cornelius Vanderbilt was born poor, yet became the richest man on Earth. Nevertheless, even that fortune didn't last more than a few generations. The dominant industry of Vanderbilt's time (railroads) gave way to others that overtook it. This simple example illustrates how even those in the current AI-elite will eventually lose their fortune in one way or another." |
| More Tech: Advancements in self-driving cars |
| AI addendum |
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| Would you rather |
| 03/30/26 5:24 PM EST | Markets |
| "Instead of playing this investment game of Would You Rather and choosing between increasingly unattractive options, we have the ability and willingness to sit this one out. For those who feel compelled to remain fully invested in stocks, the risks of profit and valuation normalization are, in our view, very real. At this stage of the cycle, we believe the opportunity cost of patience is far lower than the risk of permanent capital impairment. In fact, when valuations have reached these levels in the past, equities have fallen as much as 50%. A similar decline today would simply bring valuations back to historical averages." |
| More Markets: Sanity check |
| Lessons from historic oil spikes |
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| Sanity check |
| 03/30/26 5:20 PM EST | Markets |
| "It seems the market is going crazy, as usual. So I decided to do something I haven't done in a while; look at the Dow 30 stocks and their P/E ratios one at a time. Averages often don't always tell the whole story, but looking at a list of individual stocks can give you an idea of what's going on. " |
| More Markets: Lessons from historic oil spikes |
| Waiting for the IPO wave |
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| Going on in privates |
| 03/30/26 5:18 PM EST | Asness |
| "it's nice to be complimented, but I did not call anything short term, including the current troubles. I stand by my observations long term, but the long term takes a while (it's in the name). This short term could turn into something ugly or turn out to be a few lonely cockroaches not auguring anything traumatic." |
| More Asness: Missing the market's N best days |
| Old man yells at the cloud |
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| Treason in the futures markets |
| 03/30/26 5:06 PM EST | Government |
| "There's a broader lesson here: You can't trust a corrupt government to protect national security. And our government is now utterly corrupt: It's hard to find a single senior official, from the president on down, who treats public office as a grave responsibility rather than an opportunity for personal self-aggrandizement and profit. Among other things, deeply corrupt governments tend to be very bad at waging war, no matter how much they may exalt 'warrior ethos' and 'lethality.'" |
| More Government: Doody calls central banking |
| Goodbye, reliable economic data |
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| The Impotence of Drill, Baby, Drill |
| 03/14/26 10:32 PM EST | World |
| "So US prices of gasoline and other oil products reflect world crude prices, and the fact that America produces a lot of oil doesn't matter at all. If anything, US families are more exposed to Middle East chaos than their counterparts in, say, Europe or Japan, mainly because we drive bigger, less fuel-efficient cars." |
| More World: International financial anarchy |
| The all hat, no cattle economy |
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| Lessons from historic oil spikes |
| 03/14/26 10:24 PM EST | Markets |
| "we can see that volatility and value factors tend to perform better while momentum tends to perform worse. On average, volatility performs about 1.2% better while value performs about 40bps better. And momentum performs about 60bps worse than average." |
| More Markets: Waiting for the IPO wave |
| Talking about bubbles |
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| Waiting for the IPO wave |
| 03/14/26 10:17 PM EST | Markets |
| "Stock market bubbles are often heralded by specific IPOs which mark their beginning and not necessarily their end. For the Japanese stock market bubble, the NTT IPO of February 1987 seemed to trigger a retail investor mania; the bubble did not burst until early 1990. For the tech stock bubble, the Netscape IPO of August 1995 was a watershed event; the market peaked more than four years later. So, if we do see an IPO wave in 2026/2027, hang on to your hat. But right now, while there's a lot going on in the U.S. stock market, the lack of issuance tells me we are not yet in a stock market bubble." |
| More Markets: Talking about bubbles |
| AI and the stock market |
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| Einstein's layoffs |
| 03/14/26 10:09 PM EST | Economics |
| "Well, here in 2026, the really impressive new advancement has arrived, and Shiller's toxic narrative is spreading as predicted. It's not important whether this narrative is true, what's important is that it is believed by consumers. If low consumer confidence leads to reduced spending, the narrative can have real economic impact. And even if consumers don't actually believe the narrative, stock prices could decline if investors believe that consumers believe the narrative." |
| More Economics: Stagflation: shooting the messengers |
| The Jevons paradox |
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| The Globe's Dividend All-Stars |
| 02/21/26 7:44 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "Investing in Canadian dividend stocks has been a great way to build wealth and the Globe's Dividend All-Stars provides a guide to the largest 200 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It includes a plethora of data on each stock along with a star rating. The top 20 get a full five out of five stars and a spot in the Dividend All-Stars portfolio. We're pleased to say the portfolio handily beat the market since its last update with gains of 41.4 per cent" [$] |
| More Stingy Investing: Asset Mixer Update |
| Periodic Table Update |
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| Talking about bubbles |
| 02/21/26 7:38 PM EST | Markets |
| "Centuries of financial history show that the opposite is true: When everybody's asking about a bubble, that's a strong sign that a bubble is indeed occurring. Bubbles are not a secret to the people experiencing them." |
| More Markets: AI and the stock market |
| Fear of missing out on global catastrophe |
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| AI and the stock market |
| 02/21/26 7:24 PM EST | Markets |
| "I've previously argued that the stock market is not in an AI bubble. But that doesn't mean that everything is sunshine and rainbows. I view today's stock market as having both unusually large upside and unusually large downside. In this piece, I want to sketch out the worst-case scenario for global equities." |
| More Markets: Fear of missing out on global catastrophe |
| Weaponized risk models |
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| Fear of missing out on global catastrophe |
| 02/21/26 7:21 PM EST | Markets |
| "In recent months, gold and silver have exhibited incredible price volatility. Why? Because they've transformed from boring commodities traded by professionals into exciting gambling instruments traded by retail investors. Forget meme stocks, we've entered the age of meme metals." |
| More Markets: Weaponized risk models |
| Trillionaire |
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