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 07/14   The Stingy News Weekly: July 14, 2024 
 07/14   The risks we miss 
 07/14   A balance of regrets 
 07/14   The superior returns of cyclical stocks 
 07/14   US stocks are much more expensive 
 07/07   The Stingy News Weekly: July 7, 2024 
 07/06   Did inflation kill the CAPM? 
 07/06   Inflation impacts retirement 


Most Recent Stingy News

The Stingy News Weekly: July 14, 2024
07/14/24 6:42 PM ESTSNW
This week we have risk, regret, cyclical stocks, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: July 7, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: June 30, 2024

The risks we miss
07/14/24 2:42 PM ESTBehaviour
"I've long argued that, to build wealth, we should avoid chasing investment performance and instead focus on three less-exciting endeavors: saving diligently, keeping a tight lid on investment and other costs, and managing risk."
More Behaviour: A balance of regrets
Investors should expect the worst

A balance of regrets
07/14/24 2:39 PM ESTBehaviour
"The bad news about diversification is that regret is a constant problem. The good news is that by spreading your bets, you avoid taking that regret to the extreme."
More Behaviour: Investors should expect the worst
Permission and trust climb in value

The superior returns of cyclical stocks
07/14/24 2:38 PM ESTValue Investing
"So now you know what to buy. Cyclical stocks with low valuations. Then hold on to them for a long time. This is really the hard part because value investing is already psychologically demanding, but value investing in highly cyclical companies is a step up from that."
More Value Investing: Mean reversion, or extreme aversion?
Francis Chou talks at Ivey

US stocks are much more expensive
07/14/24 2:34 PM ESTMarkets
"The US trades at almost a 2x premium to the rest of the world on EV/sales. And we see an even more dramatic story on price-to-book multiples"
More Markets: Did inflation kill the CAPM?
The buyback wall of shame

The Stingy News Weekly: July 7, 2024
07/07/24 1:29 PM ESTSNW
This week we have retirement, buybacks, inflation, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: June 30, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: June 22, 2024

Did inflation kill the CAPM?
07/06/24 4:30 PM ESTMarkets
"Currently, with the excess CAPE yield below 3% and inflation above 3%, expected returns are low. Historically, after such periods, the market return was close to zero, but factor strategies still delivered positive returns of about 3% after inflation. Therefore, while the immediate future may not be promising for the equity premium, it looks bright for factor premiums."
More Markets: The buyback wall of shame
Chasing the biggest stocks

Inflation impacts retirement
07/06/24 4:20 PM ESTRetirement
"As much as I love running retirement scenarios using the 4% Rule, this is where they fall short. The 4% Rule assumes that retirees are robots who indiscriminately increasing their spending with inflation each year. Unfortunately, all the empirical evidence suggests that this isn't how retirees behave. If anything, retirement spending tends to go down over time, not up."
More Retirement: Looking different
Life after cars

Companies are lousy market timers
07/06/24 3:58 PM ESTManagement
"The reason to rain on the buyback parade is that companies on average are lousy market timers: they tend to repurchase shares when prices are high."
More Management: Beware of companies moving targets
The quotations of chairman Ray

Beware of companies moving targets
07/06/24 3:56 PM ESTManagement
"We are approaching the end of the second quarter and soon, companies will start reporting their results for the previous three months. Unfortunately, as research from D.A.T.A. shows, the results for Q2 and Q3 tend to be the least truthful results in the year"
More Management: The quotations of chairman Ray
Return-to-office mandates

Looking different
07/06/24 3:53 PM ESTRetirement
"But suddenly, I am the oddball. I'm a 61-year-old with perhaps as little as a year to live, and that means my financial life today doesn't look like that of anybody I know - in seven key ways."
More Retirement: Life after cars
The C word

The Stingy News Weekly: June 30, 2024
06/30/24 2:14 PM ESTSNW
This week we have value, buybacks, Europe, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: June 22, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: June 16, 2024

The buyback wall of shame
06/29/24 8:26 PM ESTMarkets
"With the stock market trading at record highs, corporations are aggressively buying back stock. Some consider the current level of buybacks as a sign of confidence. Given valuations, we view it as a sign of capital misallocation and profit extrapolation."
More Markets: Chasing the biggest stocks
The penny stock anomaly

Mean reversion, or extreme aversion?
06/29/24 8:16 PM ESTValue Investing
"In other words, it is the value stocks in Europe which have been hit the hardest. Harder than the growth stocks, and even harder than US value stocks. Much harder, in fact."
More Value Investing: Francis Chou talks at Ivey
Valuation multiples

Investors should expect the worst
06/29/24 8:14 PM ESTBehaviour
"Although I am averse to making financial market forecasts, I can say with some level of confidence that over any long-run horizon most investors will have to encounter painful periods of losses in equity markets. Some seem unaware of this (or at least behave as if they are) while others spend most of their time attempting to predict when such phases will occur. Neither of these will lead to good outcomes."
More Behaviour: Permission and trust climb in value
Useful and overlooked skills

The calm before the storm
06/29/24 7:24 PM ESTBonds
"In our view, neither private credit nor direct lending have rewritten the rules of credit risk. We'd argue that what passes for innovation in finance is often just repackaging risk in more convenient and higher-fee wrappers"
More Bonds: Comfort has a cost
Yield is not return

The Stingy News Weekly: June 22, 2024
06/22/24 5:43 PM ESTSNW
This week we have Chou, discounting, trust, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: June 16, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: June 9, 2024

Francis Chou talks at Ivey
06/22/24 3:03 PM ESTValue Investing
"Francis Chou talks about value investing and his private company at Ivey" [video]
More Value Investing: Valuation multiples
Quality, value, or both

Chasing the biggest stocks
06/22/24 1:42 PM ESTMarkets
"Outperformance comes from the journey to the top 10, which can be breathtaking. However, once these companies reach the summit, it's much harder to maintain that outperformance."
More Markets: The penny stock anomaly
A changing yield curve signal

The unexpected origins of discounting
06/22/24 1:24 PM ESTHistory
"in 1626, Durham officials found a formula for fees that tenants would accept. If tenant farmers paid a fee equal to one year's net value of the land, it earned them a seven-year lease. A fee equal to 7.75 years of net value earned a 21-year lease. This was a form of discounting, the now-common technique for evaluating the present and future value of money by assuming a certain rate of return on that money."
More History: Cumulative vs. cyclical knowledge
How the potato chip took over America

The penny stock anomaly
06/22/24 1:11 PM ESTMarkets
"In summary, we have shown penny stocks generally have unattractive investment characteristics, with lower average returns and higher volatility than regular stocks."
More Markets: A changing yield curve signal
Procyclical stocks earn higher returns

The Rothery Report

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