Most Recent Stingy News
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| Dumb money triumphant |
| 11/03/25 PM EST | Behaviour |
| "Is the U.S. stock market in a bubble? I doubt we're there yet, but one sign of speculative froth is the recent success of retail investors. On average, retail investors exhibit anti-skill in their stock selection decisions, meaning that their holdings underperform the market. So when retail investors are winning, that tells you that market conditions are unusual." |
| More Behaviour: Little Rules About Big Things |
| Let's get happy |
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| Narrow spreads |
| 11/03/25 PM EST | Bonds |
| "At today's levels, we think high-yield credit offers little value to investors. The yield of the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate High Yield Index sits at just 2.6% above Treasuries of similar duration, within spitting distance of the all-time narrow level of 2.3%. The last time spreads were this tight was May 2007 during one of the biggest risk chases in credit history." |
| More Bonds: F.A.C.O. |
| Reconsidering core bonds |
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| We're number two! |
| 11/03/25 PM EST | Markets |
| "All in all, this whole confrontation has been a demonstration of Chinese strength and American weakness. Add in the way that Trump has alienated our allies, and it seems fair to say that America is no longer the world's leading power. Unless a future president can engineer a miraculous recovery in our global stature, the future now belongs to China." |
| More Markets: Making money from cognitive dissonance |
| Straight talk about circular deals |
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| Making money from cognitive dissonance |
| 11/03/25 PM EST | Markets |
| "A simple trading strategy that invests after earnings have been released in companies with a Sell consensus rating and positive earnings surprises, and shorts companies with a Buy consensus rating that missed earnings estimates, creates a much larger performance than doing the opposite or the traditional standard post-earnings announcement drift strategy. Indeed, between 1997 and 2023, the average monthly abnormal return was about 1%. That annualises to 12.6%." |
| More Markets: Straight talk about circular deals |
| Save your money? |
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| Currency valuations |
| 11/03/25 PM EST | World |
| "Many US investors get paid in dollars, invest in dollar-denominated assets, and don't spend much time thinking about the relative attractiveness of the dollar versus other currencies. But for investors, the dollar is simply another asset, with a yield and a risk profile that can be compared to other currencies." |
| More World: Making China great |
| Japan's dividend and buyback surge |
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| Straight talk about circular deals |
| 10/20/25 4:41 PM EST | Markets |
| "A stock market bubble is not about the circular flow of money in a closed system. A stock market bubble is about the flow of money from optimistic/gullible investors into the stock market. Ouroboros, the snake eating its own tail, is not a good model for a stock market bubble. A better model is an anglerfish: using a bioluminescent appendage, the anglerfish lures unwary prey and then gobbles it down. You can't have an anglerfish without prey. You can't have a casino without customers. And you can't have a bubble without inflows." |
| More Markets: Save your money? |
| Challenge of diversification |
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| Save your money? |
| 10/20/25 4:32 PM EST | Markets |
| "My grandfather's advice to 'save your money' made sense throughout his life and most of mine. But today, with inflation lingering, asset prices soaring, and policy pushing the economy to run hot, the choice between saving and spending has become more complicated. Saving is still important, but it may also be worth asking when spending makes sense - whether to get ahead of wealth-driven demand and price hikes, or to avoid being caught holding overvalued stocks. In some cases, spending your money, or monetizing inflated financial assets, may actually be the more sensible option." |
| More Markets: Challenge of diversification |
| Opposing ideas |
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| Challenge of diversification |
| 10/20/25 4:25 PM EST | Markets |
| "The promise of diversification is higher returns with lower volatility. The challenge for investors is that the diversification value of the major investable alternative has varied widely over time, both as measured by ability to contribute to portfolio return and by correlation with equities." |
| More Markets: Opposing ideas |
| About the low volatility factor |
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| Opposing ideas |
| 10/20/25 3:46 PM EST | Markets |
| "International small value, in particular, stands out as a rare combination of high returns, moderate volatility, and low correlation to US equitiesâ€"an especially valuable mix for investors seeking true diversification. Using this data set, the Sharpe-optimal mix of these equity strategies over the trailing five years (again, with perfect foresight) would have been 35% US large value, 29% NASDAQ, 19% international small-cap value, and 17% international large-cap value." |
| More Markets: About the low volatility factor |
| Not partying like it's 1999 |
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| Focus on trailing P/Es |
| 10/13/25 3:14 PM EST | Value Investing |
| "my research shows that trailing P/E ratios have superior forecasting ability compared to forward P/E ratios. The reason is simple. Trailing earnings are based on realized earnings, while forward earnings are based on earnings forecasted by analysts." |
| More Value Investing: How flows change factor performance |
| US value trading at a discount |
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| Making China great |
| 10/13/25 1:44 PM EST | World |
| "You might ask why, if China has this much economic leverage, it hasn't exploited it in the past. My answer would be in part that America used to have important strengths that Trump has now thrown away. But perhaps even more important, nobody really wins a trade war. Even if the United States ends up crying uncle and making humiliating concessions - which seems the most likely outcome - China will end up poorer than it would have been if there had never been a trade war in the first place." |
| More World: Japan's dividend and buyback surge |
| The overvalued dollar |
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| AI addendum |
| 10/13/25 1:42 PM EST | Tech |
| "AI is something to keep an eye on. We have a template of prior buildouts as a roadmap, from railroads to the fiber-optic buildout in 2000, from the canal bubble of the 1830s, to the power plant bubble of the 1920s. If the economics don't work, doing it at massive scale doesn't make the economics work any betterâ€"it just takes an industry crisis and makes it into a national economic crisis. Like many things in finance, the outcome remains obvious, it's the timing that is the hard part." |
| More Tech: Good nuke news |
| Driverless taxis records |
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| About the low volatility factor |
| 10/11/25 3:58 PM EST | Markets |
| "The low volatility factor produced an annualized premium of 6.4% with a near-zero beta, and a CAPM alpha of 6.3% per annum - a highly significant result." |
| More Markets: Not partying like it's 1999 |
| In praise of quarterly earnings reports |
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| Not partying like it's 1999 |
| 10/11/25 3:56 PM EST | Markets |
| "However, unlike the tech boom of the 1990s, the current AI boom isn't translating into widespread economic optimism. In fact, Americans are remarkably downbeat about the economy and the future in general. And I think it's worth trying to understand why." |
| More Markets: In praise of quarterly earnings reports |
| Where factors speak loudest |
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| Not wrong on covered calls |
| 10/06/25 2:52 PM EST | Funds |
| "These products are likely to be detrimental to long-term investors, including those who need income, and I think it's important for the truth about what they should be expected to do to be articulated in an understandable way. " [video] |
| More Funds: Covered calls and cash flow |
| Covered calls: a devil's bargain |
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| Covered calls and cash flow |
| 10/06/25 2:51 PM EST | Funds |
| "Some covered call strategies are better than others in terms of upside exposure and tax efficiency. But they usually give up too much upside and are often tax-inefficient compared to pure and simple stock market exposure. Call me Danny Downer if you must, but I have yet to encounter a covered call strategy that I would buy or recommend to others - and I don't see that changing any time soon." |
| More Funds: Covered calls: a devil's bargain |
| There Ain't No Such Thing as a Free Lunch |
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| In praise of quarterly earnings reports |
| 10/06/25 2:50 PM EST | Markets |
| "What would happen if we made quarterly disclosure optional, as suggested by Atkins? Probably not much. Since most U.S. firms were already reporting quarterly before the SEC mandated it in 1970, most will probably continue even in the absence of mandates. Corporations generally take actions that investors want, and as long as investors want quarterly reporting, most corporations will do it." |
| More Markets: Where factors speak loudest |
| The 60/40 portfolio: a 150-year test |
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| Where factors speak loudest |
| 10/06/25 2:44 PM EST | Markets |
| "Still, we believe size matters - not as a standalone source of return, but as a modulator of other factors. In our research, we have found factor premia are strongest in microcaps and fade gradually as market cap increases. Small size amplifies factors, while large caps dilute them." |
| More Markets: The 60/40 portfolio: a 150-year test |
| Crowding into quality |
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| 5% rule is the new 4% rule |
| 10/06/25 2:42 PM EST | Retirement |
| "[IF] You are willing to decrease your spending during market crashes." |
| More Retirement: Wisdom from Jonathan Clements |
| Retirees spend income, not savings |
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| Wisdom from Jonathan Clements |
| 10/06/25 2:00 PM EST | Retirement |
| "Jonathan Clements was a journalist who prided himself on writing about the same ideas over and over. His aim wasn't to be sensational. It was to remind readers of what really mattered. He accomplished his goal. When he died on Sept. 21, at 62, the former Wall Street Journal columnist, Citigroup executive and founder of the Humbledollar.com website left behind a vast legacy of columns and books on personal finance. He also left behind the memory of his quiet dignity during the final months of his life." [$] |
| More Retirement: Retirees spend income, not savings |
| Risky business |
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| Good nuke news |
| 10/06/25 1:58 PM EST | Tech |
| "wind and solar and batteries have won the cost and speed race against nuclear, and that case is closed. They are cheap, effective, and reliable at generating a return on investmentâ€"qualities which have long since eluded the nuclear sector. And yet, with state support, grids that add nuclear at the margin find that emissions reductions are easier to achieve when nuclear, with its ultra-high capacity factor, comes online" |
| More Tech: Driverless taxis records |
| Waymos crash less than humans |
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