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Article Archive: Government

Goodbye, reliable economic data
08/03/25   Government
"And just like that, we can no longer treat BLS data as the gold standard. ... Maybe, just maybe, the staff at the BLS will hold to their principles and continue to report honestly. ... From here on, I'm going to be paying a lot more attention to private surveys. And when they tell a different story from the official numbers, there will no longer be a reason to take the official data more seriously. It's one more step on our rapid descent into banana republic status."

Writing through policy depression
08/03/25   Government
"This past week, however, something felt different. Again, I don't think its personal depression. I think it's a professional depression. Because as someone who writes about and studies global political economy and American foreign policy, it's been a shitty week on top of a shitty month on top of a shitty year. ... Even if the GOP loses in the midterms and then in 2028 presidential election, can the damage be repaired? I have my doubts. The hard lesson of this century has been that institutions and norms can take decades to build up and months to be destroyed."

Off the hook
05/05/25   Government
"After years of riding the wave of easy money and effortless asset appreciation, many sophisticated investors were caught off guard by the market's negative response. While tariffs may have been the catalyst for the recent decline in stock prices, they certainly aren't responsible for this cycle's elevated valuations. Investing in an asset bubble carries tremendous risks. Pay up and play along, and you assume the risk. We believe prices paid, not tariffs, will be the main source of investor losses when the current market cycle ends."

Trudeau was a poor steward
01/13/25   Government
"The fact is, no one seems to really know what's behind Canada's low productivity growth. Observers agree that low rates of corporate investment, including investment in R&D, are the problem, but no one seems to have a good explanation for why companies aren't investing. And no one seems to know whether Canada's especially bad performance since the pandemic is just an exacerbation of the existing negative trends, or whether some new problem has cropped up in addition."

Negative trading in congress
07/27/24   Government
"We investigate negative trading, such as short selling, by members of Congress. We find, based on a new comprehensive dataset of trades by members of Congress, that negative trading not only is common, but also is associated with positive abnormal financial returns. Simply put, members of Congress's bets on stock price drops make money."

Making life worse one bulb at a time
04/08/23   Government
"There's something off about LED bulbs - which will soon be, thanks to a federal ban, the only kind you can buy."

Unforced errors
11/14/21   Government
"Now where there is the ability to self-correct, eventually societies will remove regulators, politicians, etc. That said, some things are more entrenched than others. I speak of the cult of stimulus. What is more untouchable than the central banks? It's hard to think of anything more unaccountable. They may technically be beholden to the local parliament, but practically, no one ever messes with them aside from despots pursuing hyperinflation"

The death algorithm
05/09/20   Government
"If there was ever a subject that required a difficult public conversation, the response to Covid-19 is it. How many people are we willing to let die in order to keep businesses working? And which people will we let die? By creating a secret model to inform such decisions, the Trump administration is taking these questions out of the public and scientific spheres, replacing data-driven ethical debate with a pseudo-mathematical political tool. This is bad news for science, and potentially terrible news for Arizona residents."

Until growth goes away
04/17/20   Government
"We can't automatically assume we'll be able to grow out of Covid-19 debt like we did after World War II. A lot of things globally and demographically happened after the war that gave a tailwind to growth. Some of those forces are now headwinds."

Canadian Government's predatory mortgage scheme
03/25/19   Government
"The Government of Canada is using taxpayer money to invest in real estate at near peak valuations. The Department of Finance revealed the 2019 Budget yesterday, including new housing measures. Most notable is the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive, which allows the CMHC, Canada's national housing agency, to become an investor in your real estate. On the surface, it seems like it may provide a boost to the market, and is a generous gift to first-time buyers. The program's timing however, makes it a predatory loan scheme that will do more harm than good."

Paul Volcker talks to Ray Dalio
02/12/19   Government
"I sat down with one of my greatest heroes, Paul Volcker, to talk about the state of the economy and U.S. government as well as learn about the principles that guided his incredible career." [video]

Manulife bailout
11/01/18   Government
James comments on regulatory assistance provided to MFC.

Rent control needs retirement
02/12/18   Government
"If politicians actually want to make sure everyone who needs a place to rest their head has one, there's only one way to do it: Build more housing. Which means, in turn, loosening the legal restrictions and community veto points that make it so hard to add supply. Because there's no way to escape the fundamental math: Unless you build enough housing to shelter the people who want to live in your city, a whole lot of people will be left out in the cold."

Ontario making it easier to underfund pensions
01/29/18   Government
"Pension defaults are rare, but the CCPA study found that of the 39 largest publicly traded companies that have defined-benefit pensions, only nine had plans that were fully funded last year. Rather than loosening restrictions, Ontario should amend the Ontario Pension Benefit Act to require businesses to fund 100% of their pensions. Those that can't shouldn't offer pensions in the first place."

Policy-based evidence making
01/29/18   Government
"Social scientists, meanwhile, are discovering that they cannot replicate many of their own findings. The incentives of the profession weigh heavily toward designing experiments that will produce a positive result, analyzing and reanalyzing data until one appears, and then interpreting it as broadly as possible. That kind of research produces headlines, but not knowledge - a fact that social scientists are beginning to acknowledge. With their enthusiasm for EBP, policymakers are running headlong into a collapsing structure, pushing past inhabitants fleeing in the other direction."

Risky mortgage investments
12/04/17   Government
"The documents seen by Reuters, supported by interviews with 10 sources familiar with FSCO's activities, show that the agency didn't merely miss the problem; its senior investigators ignored or downplayed clear warnings from within their own ranks that retail investors were being sucked into a market to which they were ill-suited."

Mind the gap
11/20/17   Government
"On a walking tour of town officials and development consultants pointed to empty buildings and described all the things that could be done to bring them back to productive activity: open up the blank walls and re-install windows, incubate all kinds of new businesses, paint, outdoor seating. I rolled my eyes. None of those things make any economic sense given the regulatory hurdles involved and the likely negative return on the up front investment. I've seen this scenario play out many times before."

Right math, wrong conclusion
11/20/17   Government
"The answer is to confront the truth that the public plans are too generous and need rethinking. But wait, can't you hear the public-sector workers saying that it's unfair to reduce their DB promise because they have paid for it? Well they haven't. Government workers and their employers are still funding their pensions assuming the same 1990s returns that built the Factor of 9 (or maybe a factor of 12). They are ignoring the true cost of the pensions being earned and they hope that future investment gains will forever hide the fact that the guaranteed benefit they are receiving is being funded by risky investments that may or may not pay off. Government workers are paying about 12% of pay for a benefit that is worth about three times the amount even though the government is telling taxpayers its only worth twice as much."

Inside Trump's U.S.D.A.
11/12/17   Government
"The folks at the Department of Agriculture laid on a friendly welcome for the Trump transition team, but they soon discovered that most of his appointees were stunningly unqualified. With key U.S.D.A. programs - from food stamps to meat inspection, to grants and loans for rural development, to school lunches - under siege, the agency's greatest problem is that even the people it helps most don't know what it does."

SEC insider-trading-like returns
11/06/17   Government
"A portfolio mimicking trades made by SEC employees between 2009 and 2011 earned excess risk-adjusted returns of about 4 percent a year for all securities, with abnormal gains jumping to 8.5 percent when only stocks of firms based and registered in the U.S. were tracked"

Pension crisis
03/26/17   Government
"The question is why haven't the headlines presaged pension implosions? As was the case with the subprime crisis, the writing appears to be on the wall. And yet calamity has yet to strike. How so? Call it the triumvirate of conspirators - the actuaries, accountants and their accomplices in office. Throw in the law of big numbers, very big numbers, and you get to a disaster in a seemingly permanent state of making. Unfunded pension obligations have risen to $1.9 trillion from $292 billion since 2007."

Of milk cows and moats
10/29/16   Government
"When considering businesses that rely on a given locality, ask how the health of the locality affects the business. It's worth considering. For those who invest in municipal bonds, it is a critical factor. Particularly as the Baby Boomers age, weak municipalities will come under pressure. Stick with strong municipalities, and services that would be impossible to do without."

If you build it
09/17/16   Government
"While infrastructure investment is often needed when cities or regions are already expanding, too often it goes to declining areas that don't require it and winds up having little long-term economic benefit. As for fighting recessions, which require rapid response, it's dauntingly hard in today's regulatory environment to get infrastructure projects under way quickly and wisely."

The $6 trillion public pension hole
08/21/16   Government
"Compounding the problem, today's aggregate annual contributions of $160 billion don't even pay for newly earned benefits, adding more debt to be paid by future generations. State and local governments already face making bigger required contributions - even under the measurement approach that ignores risk - requiring higher taxes and crowding out other government spending. That is already happening in Chicago. In Detroit, Stockton, Calif., and Puerto Rico, bondholders haven't been paid."

Why Americans don't trust government
05/29/16   Government
"Though the bridge took only 11 months to build in 1912, it will take close to five years to repair today at a huge cost in dollars and mass delays."

How politicians poisoned statistics
04/24/16   Government
"Perhaps the lies aren't the real enemy here. Lies can be refuted; liars can be exposed. But bullshit? Bullshit is a stickier problem. Bullshit corrodes the very idea that the truth is out there, waiting to be discovered by a careful mind. It undermines the notion that the truth matters. As Harry Frankfurt himself wrote, the bullshitter 'does not reject the authority of the truth, as the liar does, and oppose himself to it. He pays no attention to it at all. By virtue of this, bullshit is a greater enemy of the truth than lies are.'"

A debt of choice
03/26/16   Government
"But the federal debt is only part of our overall debt level. The provinces collectively have debts very nearly equal to the feds, bringing the combined federal-provincial debt closer to 60 per cent of GDP"

Trump's business disaster
03/05/16   Government
"Why is Donald Trump getting a pass for his disastrous and incompetent track record of running a public company?"

From the tower to the white house
02/21/16   Government
"The era of humiliation came in the 1990s, as the casino business faltered and two of his gambling entities defaulted (two other related casino enterprises defaulted in 2004 and 2009). This destabilised the whole of Mr Trump's operation, which may have had as much as $6 billion of debt in today's prices. Through asset sales, defaults and forbearance from his creditors, Mr Trump clung on and avoided personal bankruptcy."

Slaves of the markets
02/14/16   Government
"The academics suggest central banks are following a rough rule of thumb. They postpone rate increases when volatility is high, for fear of causing further upset, but respond to high volatility with rate reductions."

What the Big Short gets wrong
01/17/16   Government
"Oscar-nominated director Adam McKay deserves credit for trying to make such complex financial concepts accessible. But since many Americans will be inclined to believe The Big Short's cinematic version of the mortgage crisis, it's worth noting that its analysis of what actually happened to the American economy - even down to the virtuosic little explainer asides- doesn't really add up."

New York is a city of NO
11/28/15   Government
"New York now is a city of no. You have this great idea? No, you can't do it. You want to try this out? No. You go to Baltimore and it's a city of, 'Well why the f- not? Let's try this!' They really, really love their city and it's exciting. It's that energy I felt when I was growing up in New York."

Canadian pension plans the new speculators
11/15/15   Government
"Leverage at Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan, widely known as HOOPP, now exceeds 100 percent of its net assets, leading to a more than doubling of the total assets at its disposal to invest. Ontario Teachers. Pension Plan, the nation's third largest, has leverage equal to half its net assets."

Taking on the drug profiteers
10/10/15   Government
"The Turing scandal has shown just how vulnerable drug pricing is to exploitative, rent-seeking behavior. It's fair enough to excoriate Martin Shkreli for greed and indifference. The real problem, however, is not the man but the system that has let him thrive."

Mansion owners who plead poverty
09/27/15   Government
"The tax unfairness caused by the growing phenomenon of mansion owners alleging poverty can be traced largely to Canada failing to catch trans-national migrants who refuse to report their total global income at tax times."

OPEC of maple syrup
08/22/15   Government
"While Mr. Trepanier studiously avoids calling the organization a cartel, he has described it as the OPEC of maple syrup in the past, referring to the group of oil-producing countries."

Wishful thinking
06/27/15   Government
"There is little sign that states will face reality soon. A recent rule change by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board was intended to bring the deficit calculations of public plans closer to those of the private sector. In practice, however, the CRR found that only seven of 150 plans had reduced their discount rate by more than half a percentage point."

How Chicago used financial engineering
04/04/15   Government
"Unsurprisingly, some of Chicago's bonds are already trading at junk levels. That said, the rating agencies and most other market participants still appear to be light years away from understanding the true scope of Chicago's financial problems. The city has a very - well, let's just call it unconventional - approach to borrowing money and probably should not be considered investment grade."

Red tape is strangling good samaritans
01/03/15   Government
"Regulations and rules are making it harder to do the right thing."

John Oliver: The Lottery
11/15/14   Government
"State lotteries claim to be good for education and the general wellbeing of citizens. But are they? (Spoiler alert: No.)" [video]

O Beholden Canada
10/26/14   Government
"Call it Canada's summer of pension discontent. Governments throughout the country are grappling with as much as $300 billion in unfunded government-worker retirement debt. In a country of just 38.5 million people, that's a pension problem roughly equivalent to the one that California faces. And it's widely shared."

The Secret Goldman Sachs tapes
09/26/14   Government
"The Fed failed to regulate the banks because it did not encourage its employees to ask questions, to speak their minds or to point out problems. Just the opposite: The Fed encourages its employees to keep their heads down, to obey their managers and to appease the banks. That is, bank regulators failed to do their jobs properly not because they lacked the tools but because they were discouraged from using them."

The Secret Recordings of Carmen Segarra
09/26/14   Government
"An unprecedented look inside one of the most powerful, secretive institutions in the country. The NY Federal Reserve is supposed to monitor big banks. But when Carmen Segarra was hired, what she witnessed inside the Fed was so alarming that she got a tiny recorder and started secretly taping."

The criminalisation of business
08/29/14   Government
"Companies must be punished when they do wrong, but the legal system has become an extortion racket."

Addicted to zero
07/05/14   Government
"So tell me again why central bankers in North America feel they have to 'keep our economy going' by maintaining a zero-interest rate policy."

Why was Canada exempt from the financial crisis?
05/25/14   Government
"From its beginning, Canada's banking system was structured to be less vulnerable to shocks and thus did not give rise to the need for a central bank to achieve stability. By contrast, the Fed was created to offset vulnerabilities in the American banking system."

Flinty-eyed fiscal conservatives
05/04/14   Government
"Why yes: reading the budget, one was taken back to the last days of the Bob Rae government, two decades ago - that same feeling that those in charge had no real grasp on the size of the hole they had dug for themselves, nor any serious plan to get out of it. In retrospect, the comparison seems unfair. Rae was a flinty-eyed fiscal conservative compared to this bunch."

When hedge funds lobby
03/15/14   Government
"The worrying thing is that the Ackmans and Westhuses of this world have discovered what you might call the Buffett Arbitrage. Rather than investing in advertising or capital stock, they invest instead in lobbying, with the aim of getting very specific legislation passed which will make them very rich."

Now with less democracy
02/23/14   Government
"Quebec is vowing to act fast and make changes that would give the corporate boards of locally-headquartered companies more power to reject hostile takeovers."

Job creation plan won't create a single job
12/15/13   Government
"However, reading through the details of this plan, skepticism turns to outrage. This is a plan that is explicitly designed to increase income inequality and transfer money from poorer regions of the province to one of Canada.s wealthiest cities and will likely not create a single new job."

Confessions of a Quantitative Easer
11/17/13   Government
"Even by the Fed's sunniest calculations, aggressive QE over five years has generated only a few percentage points of U.S. growth. By contrast, experts outside the Fed, such as Mohammed El Erian at the Pimco investment firm, suggest that the Fed may have created and spent over $4 trillion for a total return of as little as 0.25% of GDP (i.e., a mere $40 billion bump in U.S. economic output). Both of those estimates indicate that QE isn't really working."

Obamacare's losers and why they matter
11/03/13   Government
"If we want health inflation to stay low and health care costs to be less of an anchor on advancement, we should want more Americans making $50,000 or $60,000 or $70,000 to spend less upfront on health insurance, rather than using regulatory pressure to induce them to spend more. And seen in that light, the potential problem with Obamacare's regulation-driven 'rate shock' isn't that it doesn't let everyone keep their pre-existing plans. It's that it cancels plans, and raises rates, for people who were doing their part to keep all of our costs low."

Political fear vs technical needs
11/03/13   Government
"Inside the Department of Health and Human Services. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid, the main agency responsible for the exchanges, there was no single administrator whose full-time job was to manage the project."

The pension dragon
11/03/13   Government
"After days of struggling to understand the financial condition of the retirement system for state employees and teachers, she came to realize that the system no longer made sense. Years of mismanagement and underfunding had allowed money to be drained that was needed to pay promised pensions. The crisis was much worse than Raimondo had expected."

Debt limit
10/20/13   Government
"A satirical short film taking a look at the national debt and how it applies to just one family."

Puerto Rico's pension crisis
09/22/13   Government
"Puerto Rico can cover only 11.2 percent of its public pension costs, which is even less than the notoriously underfunded Illinois retirement system"

How Detroit went broke
09/16/13   Government
"Detroit is broke, but it didn't have to be. An in-depth Free Press analysis of the city's financial history back to the 1950s shows that its elected officials and others charged with managing its finances repeatedly failed - or refused - to make the tough economic and political decisions that might have saved the city from financial ruin."

Did Goldman Sachs overstep?
08/04/13   Government
"A month after ace programmer Sergey Aleynikov left Goldman Sachs, he was arrested. Exactly what he'd done neither the F.B.I., which interrogated him, nor the jury, which convicted him a year later, seemed to understand. But Goldman had accused him of stealing computer code, and the 41-year-old father of three was sentenced to eight years in federal prison. Investigating Aleynikov's case, Michael Lewis holds a second trial."

Feds vs. raisins
07/21/13   Government
"The government allows them to sell one out of every two raisins.The farmers were always supposed to get a percentage of the money raised from the reserve pool raisins, but as profit margins dwindled over the years, so did the return to farmers. The tipping point came in 2003, when farmers received zero dollars in return for the 47 percent of the crop they had surrendered."

Detroit gap and pension math
07/20/13   Government
"Until mid-June, there was one ray of hope in Detroit's gathering storm: For all the city's problems, its pension fund was in pretty good shape. If the city went under, its thousands of retired clerks, police officers, bus drivers and other workers would still be safe. Then came bad news. Seemingly out of nowhere, a $3.5 billion hole appeared in Detroit's pension system, courtesy of calculations by a firm hired by the city's emergency manager."

How not to run a pension fund
03/03/13   Government
"I love alternative investments. I love Wall Street. I don't mind paying fees. But I want returns."

We are the 98 percent
01/12/13   Government
"The only way to finance a big European-style state is to have it paid for by massive taxation of everyone, mostly the middle class. Right now, we are avoiding honest debate on this fact."

The real fiscal problem
01/01/13   Government
"Why it's not repaying the swelling national debt that necessarily by itself creates a problem for the U.S. economy; rather it's the government's increasing spending on unproductive programs in the first place, financed with increasing levels of national debt, that creates the real problem for the economy."

Zero-Sum doesn't add up
12/29/12   Government
"Is life like a pizza, where if some people have too many slices, other people have to eat the pizza box?"

Heading over the fiscal cliff
12/29/12   Government
"Even if the United States slips back into recession in the short-term, the fiscal cliff's economic prescriptions will make it better in the long-run: The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, a decade after going over the edge, debt will be 58% of GDP - which is much better than 100%."

Manitoba credit union depositors take note
12/22/12   Government
"An experienced accountant with more than two decades of experience in government, Mr. Dalgliesh said he had been relegated to the Manitoba Information Technology Branch after trying to blow the whistle on Crocus, a disastrous labour-sponsored investment fund."

How to burn $50 billion
12/22/12   Government
"Ottawa has increased by $50-billion the amount of residential mortgages that it is willing to guarantee. But this time the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the biggest provider of mortgage default insurance, is not getting any. Instead, the additional backing is going only to private-sector players such as Genworth Canada, who will see their maximum raised to $300-billion from $250-billion."

Pay giveaway
12/15/12   Government
"From coast to coast, states are cutting funding for schools, public safety and the poor as they struggle with fallout left by politicians who made pay-and-pension promises that taxpayers couldn't afford."

Kindly note the impending bankruptcy
12/01/12   Government
"You cannot simultaneously enjoy American-sized taxes and European-sized government. One or the other has to go." [Some colourful language.]

Backseat drivers
10/06/12   Government
"Yet our private sector is forever being treated as if it were, in fact, part of the public sector. I don't mean the normal laws and regulations to which all of us are properly subject, so far as our actions might cause harm to others. I mean the habit of certain busybodies, in government and out, to dictate how private firms should run their business, just as if the backseat drivers were the owners."

It's just totally irresponsible
08/12/12   Government
"What we're actually witnessing - and have been for years now - is not gridlock, but the abdication of responsibility by Congress and the president for performing the most basic responsibilities of government. Despite the fiscal crisis that Washington knows will occur if it fails to deal with unsustainable spending and debt, it hasn't managed to produce a federal budget in more than three years."

The state of the States
08/12/12   Government
"For operational purposes, 'states' are best understood as undercapitalized health care and pension funds that write speeding tickets on the side."

Generational warfare
07/28/12   Government
"Flash forward half a century, and the boomers who once sang along with Dylan have become the reactionary elders, clinging to their power and perks at the literal expense of everyone younger. There's a new generation gap opening up, one that threatens to tear apart the country every bit as much as past confrontations over war, free love, drugs, and sitar music. This fight is about old-age entitlements and whether the Me Generation will do what's right for the country and stop sucking up more and more money from their children and grandchildren."

Operation Un-Twist
06/21/12   Government
"I don't know who in their right mind is lending the US government money for 10 years at 1.59% and for thirty years at 2.67%. You have to believe inflation will be lower than these values just to get your money back, let alone make any real return. (The best I can do is to opine that these are not long-term investors, and they think they can get out before rates rise. I will admit that understanding such low rates is stretching my rational-investor efficient-market prejudices.) Well, no matter. When offered a screaming good deal, you should take it!"

Red tape keeps poor people out of jobs
05/08/12   Government
"One way to help improve the lives of low income people is to focus on how the government can give them more. Sometimes this can be very effective, and even desirable. But a far less common way is to look at how the government can stop doing stuff that is making them worse off. Occupational licensing is a great example of this."

We're spent
05/04/12   Government
"This is why pleas for 'Stimulus now, austerity later' in the U.S. and Europe have the ring of chalkboard economics: Looks great in (someone's) theory, but out in the real world the market and the citizens see right through it. The biggest economic problems are political: And the biggest political problem is commitment."

Bias in government forecasts
04/21/12   Government
"Clearly, part of the blame lies with voters who don't want to hear that budget discipline means cutting programs that matter to them, and with politicians who tell voters only what they want to hear. But another factor has attracted insufficient notice: systematically over-optimistic official forecasts."

Why we must end too big to fail
03/22/12   Government
"TBTF institutions were at the center of the financial crisis and the sluggish recovery that followed. If allowed to remain unchecked, these entities will continue posing a clear and present danger to the U.S. economy. As a nation, we face a distinct choice. We can perpetuate TBTF, with its inequities and dangers, or we can end it. Eliminating TBTF won't be easy, but the vitality of our capitalist system and the long-term prosperity it produces hang in the balance."

Financial Repression
03/18/12   Government
"As they have before in the aftermath of financial crises or wars, governments and central banks are increasingly resorting to a form of "taxation" that helps liquidate the huge overhang of public and private debt and eases the burden of servicing that debt. Such policies, known as financial repression, usually involve a strong connection between the government, the central bank and the financial sector. In the U.S., as in Europe, at present, this means consistent negative real interest rates (yielding less than the rate of inflation) that are equivalent to a tax on bondholders and, more generally, savers."

Over-regulated America
02/16/12   Government
"Complexity costs money. Sarbanes-Oxley, a law aimed at preventing Enron-style frauds, has made it so difficult to list shares on an American stockmarket that firms increasingly look elsewhere or stay private. America's share of initial public offerings fell from 67% in 2002 (when Sarbox passed) to 16% last year, despite some benign tweaks to the law. A study for the Small Business Administration, a government body, found that regulations in general add $10,585 in costs per employee. It's a wonder the jobless rate isn't even higher than it is."

CPI retooling
02/13/12   Government
"If Statscan is successful in reducing overestimation of consumer price inflation, then annual increases in public or private wages and pensions indexed to the CPI will end up smaller than they would have been. This could mean companies have to pay out less in annual wage increases, but it will also offer some cost savings for Ottawa"

How sneaky governments steal your money
01/17/12   Government
"Many nations in the developed world are in deep do-do with their debt levels. On one hand they need growth to earn their way out of their problems, while on the other they're being forced into anti-growth austerity measures by markets, concerned about their spiralling interest obligations. It's a grim position for those of us brought up to expect an unrelentingly rosy economic outlook. This isn't a new situation, though. We've been here many, many times before and governments have, by design and evolutionary accident, developed many, many ways of dealing with these problems. The cunning thing is that many of these involve stealthily thieving from their own citizens, but done so surreptitiously that, if we're not careful, we won't even notice it."

Why you can't find heritage poultry
01/05/12   Government
"But here's what hasn't been said about supply management: It is the enemy of deliciousness."

Smoke Screening
12/23/11   Government
"As you stand in endless lines this holiday season, here's a comforting thought: all those security measures accomplish nothing, at enormous cost. That's the conclusion of Charles C. Mann, who put the T.S.A. to the test with the help of one of America's top security experts."

Unintended consequences: nanny state edition
11/30/11   Government
"Today and tomorrow mark the last days that put-upon parents can satiate their youngsters by simply throwing down $2.18 for a Happy Meal toy. But, thanks to the new law taking effect on Dec. 1, this is no longer permitted. Now, in order to have the privilege of making a 10-cent charitable donation in exchange for the toy, you must buy the Happy Meal. Hilariously, it appears Mar et al., in their desire to keep McDonald's from selling grease and fat to kids with the lure of a toy have now actually incentivized the purchase of that grease and fat -- when, beforehand, a put-upon parent could get out cheaper and healthier with just the damn toy."

How to kill an economy
11/26/11   Government
"Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's move to expand price controls this week sparked panic purchases by consumers, leading to shortages of everything from coffee to toilet paper."

A model for Ontario
11/17/11   Government
"California has long been among America's most extensive taxers and regulators of business. But at the same time, the state had assets that seemed to offset its economic disincentives: a famously sunny climate, a world-class public university system that produced a talented local workforce, sturdy infrastructure that often made doing business easier, and a history of innovative companies. No more. As California has transformed into a relentlessly antibusiness state, those redeeming characteristics haven't been enough to keep firms from leaving. Relocation experts say that the number of companies exiting the state for greener pastures has exploded. In surveys, executives regularly call California one of the country's most toxic business environments and one of the least likely places to open or expand a new company. Many firms still headquartered in California have forsaken expansion there."

Congress: Trading stock on inside information?
11/14/11   Government
"The next national election is now less than a year away and congressmen and senators are expending much of their time and their energy raising the millions of dollars in campaign funds they'll need just to hold onto a job that pays $174,000 a year. Few of them are doing it for the salary and all of them will say they are doing it to serve the public. But there are other benefits: Power, prestige, and the opportunity to become a Washington insider with access to information and connections that no one else has, in an environment of privilege where rules that govern the rest of the country, don't always apply to them. When Nancy Pelosi, John Boehner, and other lawmakers wouldn't answer Steve Kroft's questions, he headed to Washington to get some answers about their stock trades. Most former congressmen and senators manage to leave Washington - if they ever leave Washington - with more money in their pockets than they had when they arrived, and as you are about to see, the biggest challenge is often avoiding temptation."

Capitol gains
10/15/11   Government
"It's also possible that congressional insiders could have simply stopped reporting potentially dubious transactions once they knew people were paying attention. According to Ziobrowski, the forms still aren't audited, and they're woefully inadequate - for example, Eggers and Hainmueller say there's no clear method for reporting short-selling, one of the major ways to profit from inside information."

A national debt Of $14 trillion? Try $211 trillion
09/30/11   Government
"'We've got 78 million baby boomers who are poised to collect, in about 15 to 20 years, about $40,000 per person. Multiply 78 million by $40,000 - you're talking about more than $3 trillion a year just to give to a portion of the population,' he says. 'That's an enormous bill that's overhanging our heads, and Congress isn't focused on it. ... To eliminate the fiscal gap, Kotlikoff says, the U.S. would have to have tax increases and spending reductions far beyond what's being negotiated right now in Washington. 'What you have to do is either immediately and permanently raise taxes by about two-thirds, or immediately and permanently cut every dollar of spending by 40 percent forever."

A Ponzi scheme that should be fixed
09/21/11   Government
"You can force young people into Social Security, but if there just aren't enough young people in existence to support current beneficiaries, the system will collapse anyway. When Social Security began making monthly distributions in 1940, there were 160 workers for every senior receiving benefits. In 1950, there were 16.5 today, three in 20 years, there will be but two. Now, the average senior receives in Social Security about a third of what the average worker makes. Applying that ratio retroactively, this means that in 1940, the average worker had to pay only 0.2 percent of his salary to sustain the older folks of his time in 1950, 2 percent today, 11 percent in 20 years, 17 percent. This is a staggering sum, considering that it is in addition to all the other taxes he pays to sustain other functions of government, such as Medicare, whose costs are exploding."

Is social security a Ponzi scheme?
09/10/11   Government
"Social Security is structured from the point of view of the recipients as if it were an ordinary retirement plan: what you get out depends on what you put in. So it does not look like a redistributionist scheme. In practice it has turned out to be strongly redistributionist, but only because of its Ponzi game aspect, in which each generation takes more out than it put in. Well, the Ponzi game will soon be over, thanks to changing demographics, so that the typical recipient henceforth will get only about as much as he or she put in (and today's young may well get less than they put in)."

The forgotten man
09/10/11   Government
"With equities down sharply, many people are wondering if Uncle Ben and Uncle Sam will once again intervene and turn on the money spigot to prop up equities. Well, before the possible onset of QE3, it's time to consider who's paying for QE2 and all the other intervention strategies to date."

India says no to $80 toilet paper
09/08/11   Government
"Ordinary conversations over chai in India are now about markets and focus on the contrast between private success and public failure. While the private sector provides cutting-edge services and products to the world, the roads outside are potholed, electricity is patchy and water supply erratic. The difference between the two worlds is accountability: In private life, if you don't work, you don't eat in public life, jobs are effectively for life. Indians believe that they are rising despite the state and are often heard to say that 'India grows at night, when the government sleeps.'"

The ugly truth
08/23/11   Government
"Based on past behavior of fiscal policy makers, businesses understandably regard the debt ceiling agreement and the political outcome of negotiations between Congress and the president with the suspicion akin to how the British humorist P.G. Wodehouse regarded his aunts: "It is no use telling me there are bad aunts and good aunts," he wrote. "At the core they are all alike. Sooner or later, out pops the cloven hoof." It will be devilishly difficult for businesses to commit to adding significantly to their head count or to meaningful capital expansion in the United States until clarity is achieved on the particulars of how Congress will bend the curve of deficit and debt expansion and the "cloven hooves" are revealed. No amount of monetary accommodation can substitute for that needed clarity. In fact, it can only make it worse if business comes to suspect that the central bank is laying the groundwork for eventually inflating our way out of our fiscal predicament rather than staying above the political fray - thus creating another tranche of uncertainty."

American idiots
08/18/11   Government
"What the hell is going on? Standard and Poor's, the bond-rating agency, downgrades the U.S., and the world trembles. The markets here go nuts on the first trading day after the downgrade, losing $1 trillion in value. European Union finance chiefs are playing Whac-a-Mole with members' debt problems. And England ... England was literally burning."

Debt, downgrades, and inflation
08/13/11   Government
"Whether we are watching rioting in Greece, the US debt-ceiling showdown, or even the City of Toronto simply trying to reduce the number of libraries they offer, the issues in each case are exactly the same ..."

It's the elderly
08/04/11   Government
"If leadership is the capacity to take people where they need to go - whether or not they realize it or want it - then we've had almost no leadership in these weeks of frustrating and maddening debate over the budget and debt ceiling. There's been an unspoken consensus among President Obama, congressional Democrats and Republicans not to discuss the central issue underlying the standoff. We've heard lots about "compromise" or its absence. We've had dueling budgets with differing mixes of spending cuts and tax increases. But we've heard almost nothing of the main problem that makes the budget so intractable. It's the elderly, stupid."

I've got all the clarity I need
08/03/11   Government
"And then when you have a company like Boeing, you're talking about one of the iconic US companies gets sued by the federal government. If that doesn't get your attention, nothing will. They get sued for investing $2 billion in South Carolina. Last time I saw South Carolina was a part of the United States of America and you get sued for that."

Dodger mania
07/06/11   Government
Wrong number
07/02/11   Government
Private-public wage disparities
06/25/11   Government
The war on drugs turns 40
06/17/11   Government
State finances are worse than estimated
06/07/11   Government
The U.S. postal service nears collapse
06/01/11   Government
Economic stagnation explained, at 30,000 feet
05/28/11   Government
Beware of the yogurt
05/23/11   Government
Rules for Fools
05/15/11   Government
GM's profits a huge net loss for taxpayers
05/14/11   Government
Botox and beancounting
05/10/11   Government
Supersize our pension plan
04/29/11   Government
Losing 84 Cents on Dollar
04/21/11   Government
State of war
04/12/11   Government
Pick a number, any number
04/12/11   Government
The Ryan Journey
04/08/11   Government
Ontario's search for a solar system
03/29/11   Government
The expansion of regulators
03/29/11   Government
Public Pension-Fund Squeeze
03/23/11   Government
How state budgets are breaking
03/13/11   Government
The Lobster Underground
03/10/11   Government
The elephant in the room
03/09/11   Government
Broke Town, U.S.A.
03/03/11   Government
Flee the land of quota
03/03/11   Government
Why Koch Industries Is Speaking Out
03/01/11   Government
A License to Shampoo
02/07/11   Government
State Budget Bunk
02/07/11   Government
In debt to Grandpa
01/30/11   Government
Illinois Plan for Pensions Questioned
01/28/11   Government
The Cost of Clout
01/27/11   Government
A path to escape debt
01/23/11   Government
Dire States
01/09/11   Government
Government workers of the world unite!
01/09/11   Government
When States Default
01/04/11   Government
Day of Reckoning
12/22/10   Government
Accounting for Public Pensions
12/12/10   Government
Speak softly and carry a big chainsaw
11/21/10   Government
70 Years Early
11/07/10   Government
Pensions: Angry populists' next target
11/03/10   Government
The Fed Loses Twice
11/03/10   Government
Labour and the left
10/28/10   Government
Night of the Living Fed
10/27/10   Government
O Canada!
10/19/10   Government
The Financial Time Bomb of Longer Lives
10/17/10   Government
The Crisis in Local Government Pensions
10/13/10   Government
N.Y. Faces 200 Billion in Retiree Health Costs
10/13/10   Government
Congressional Staffers Gain From Trading in Stocks
10/11/10   Government
In praise of inflation
10/03/10   Government
Hiding, Harboring, Hoarding at Harvard
09/26/10   Government
The Illusion of Pension Savings
09/19/10   Government
Not enough labor day
09/06/10   Government
The Fed can create money, not confidence
08/25/10   Government
War between the sexes
08/25/10   Government
Complex adaptive systems
08/25/10   Government
Battle looms over public pensions
08/23/10   Government
Huge government benefit
08/23/10   Government
U.S. is bankrupt
08/12/10   Government
Why I'm not hiring
08/09/10   Government
This ain't your granpa's debt
07/26/10   Government
The technocracy boom
07/22/10   Government
Washington takes aim at Apple
07/15/10   Government
Government for sale
07/14/10   Government
What fresh hell is this?
07/09/10   Government
The true cost of pensions
07/07/10   Government
Illinois stops paying its bills
07/04/10   Government
Padded pensions
07/04/10   Government
States of crisis
06/26/10   Government
Is Illinois the new California?
06/22/10   Government
Do politicians cause downsizing?
06/21/10   Government
Payback time
06/21/10   Government
Poof, there goes the pension
06/13/10   Government
The ethanol trap
06/10/10   Government
The millionaire cop
06/02/10   Government
GM's phony bailout payback
04/27/10   Government
No money for you
04/26/10   Government
The beholden state
04/21/10   Government
Nudge this
04/15/10   Government
Coal crackdown
04/04/10   Government
Fix the mistake on the lake
03/20/10   Government
Cut pay for government workers
03/02/10   Government
The trillion dollar gap
02/20/10   Government
Inflation won't solve our debt problems
02/19/10   Government
Elders favor more regulation
02/17/10   Government
Crony Capitalism
02/09/10   Government
Seven states of energy debt
02/08/10   Government
Leviathan stirs again
01/25/10   Government
Paul Volcker
01/24/10   Government
Illinois enters a state of insolvency
01/19/10   Government
Government replaced jobs
01/06/10   Government
What's a bailed-out banker worth?
01/03/10   Government
The states and the stimulus
01/03/10   Government
Loan effort adding to housing woes
01/02/10   Government
Michigan forces owners into unions
12/26/09   Government
How big a problem is moral hazard?
12/26/09   Government
California's in trouble
12/26/09   Government
The government that stole Christmas
12/26/09   Government
Thinking about politics
12/20/09   Government
The worst-run big city in the U.S.
12/16/09   Government
Kill these job-killers
12/14/09   Government
Confronting high risk and banks
12/11/09   Government
Obama's big sellout
12/11/09   Government
Foxes guard the financial henhouse
12/03/09   Government
A growing disaster
11/29/09   Government
How little we know
11/24/09   Government
Public pensions face ugly choices
11/10/09   Government
We're governed by callous children
11/01/09   Government
A drop in the wrong bucket
10/28/09   Government
CMHC's growth fuels worries over new risks
10/18/09   Government
Then they came for the Fresca
09/27/09   Government
The hazard of moral hazard
09/19/09   Government
But who is watching regulators?
09/14/09   Government
Henry Paulson's longest night
09/01/09   Government
Federal pay continues rapid ascent
08/24/09   Government
The latest roadblock for California
08/18/09   Government
The next great bailout
08/10/09   Government
Jobless checks for millions delayed
07/29/09   Government
Fifty ways to kill recovery
07/21/09   Government
America's future
07/10/09   Government
Why we'll leave L.A.
07/10/09   Government
The great public-sector pension rip-off
07/10/09   Government
Stop the madness that's killing jobs
07/03/09   Government
Cash-poor California turns to IOUs
07/02/09   Government
Why isn't the stimulus stimulating?
06/27/09   Government
Ghost cities may be bulldozed
06/18/09   Government
California's economy: too big to fail?
06/17/09   Government
No bond safe from Obama
06/03/09   Government
The peril of 'buy American'
06/03/09   Government
As GM goes so goes California
06/02/09   Government
The need for failure
05/27/09   Government
The climate-industrial complex
05/21/09   Government
Dangerous toys, strange bedfellows
05/19/09   Government
Stimulating trade wars
05/18/09   Government
Soak the rich, lose the rich
05/18/09   Government
Geithner's gift to Wall Street
05/18/09   Government
Chrysler and the Rule of Law
05/13/09   Government
One nation, under banks
04/27/09   Government
The wail of the 1%
04/20/09   Government
Pulp nonfiction
04/06/09   Government
Why Bridgewater won't participate in PPIP
04/02/09   Government
Bubblespeak
03/30/09   Government
Obama's Nobel Headache
03/29/09   Government
The quiet coup
03/28/09   Government
Look who's getting the goodies
03/26/09   Government
Have We Seen the Last of the Bear Raids?
03/26/09   Government
Wall St. threatens to take ball, go home
03/25/09   Government
Rated F for failure
03/24/09   Government
Mass hysteria over AIG
03/23/09   Government
Punitive damage
03/21/09   Government
Is he listening?
03/20/09   Government
Let's put down the pitchforks
03/20/09   Government
Tax on employee bonuses advances
03/19/09   Government
The looting of America's coffers
03/11/09   Government
Lessons fron the great depression
03/10/09   Government
Stimulus: a history of folly
03/06/09   Government
Hidden pension fiasco
03/03/09   Government
Bankers need more skin in the game
02/25/09   Government
Feds need to break up big banks
02/16/09   Government
Cautionary tales for America from Japan
02/15/09   Government
California delays payments
02/02/09   Government
California's cash crunch
01/31/09   Government
Our permanent state of routine emergency
01/20/09   Government
Rates: when zero is way too high
01/20/09   Government
The gold reserve act
01/19/09   Government
America cannot spend its way to prosperity
01/14/09   Government
Trillion-dollar spree is road to ruin
01/12/09   Government
Bailout didn't get what Buffett got
01/09/09   Government
The end of the financial world
01/04/09   Government
GMAC, the Fed, and moral hazard
12/30/08   Government
Capitalism is worst system except for the rest
12/30/08   Government
Bailout of Long-Term Capital
12/29/08   Government
A mortgage bailout plan's paltry results
12/26/08   Government
Obama's program flunks basic math
12/26/08   Government
California will run out of money in February
12/26/08   Government
Solar meets polar
12/26/08   Government
Get ready for a lost decade
12/24/08   Government
California crisis may crunch jobs
12/24/08   Government
Daddy, where do bailouts come from?
12/22/08   Government
All the regulations money can buy
12/22/08   Government
Nanny State 2008
12/19/08   Government
GM and Chrysler will get $13.4 Billion
12/19/08   Government
Deleveraging can save jobs
12/18/08   Government
Counterfeiting vs. monetary policy
12/18/08   Government
Pan Am dies, America lives
12/18/08   Government
Fat discrimination tax
12/16/08   Government
Housing goals we can't afford
12/11/08   Government
Help Mississippi, not Michigan
12/07/08   Government
Capitalism: the remix
12/04/08   Government
Economists have abandoned principle
12/03/08   Government
Fueling up the next bubble
12/01/08   Government
Corporate jets and congress
11/27/08   Government
Fed commits $800 billion more to unfreeze lending
11/25/08   Government
Citigroup gets guarantees
11/24/08   Government
The new deal didn't always work
11/22/08   Government
Just say no to Detroit
11/17/08   Government
Treasury may purchase stakes in insurers
10/26/08   Government
Repeal the Glass-Steagall act
10/15/08   Government
Paulson urges banks to deploy capital
10/14/08   Government
U.S. will buy bank equity
10/10/08   Government
They warned us about the mortgage crisis
10/10/08   Government
We have the tools to manage the crisis
10/10/08   Government
Central banks cut rates in coordinated move
10/08/08   Government
Fed to purchase U.S. commercial paper
10/07/08   Government
Cities are cutting back projects
10/01/08   Government
U.S. House rejects rescue plan
09/29/08   Government
Breakthrough on rescue plan
09/28/08   Government
Fate of bailout plan remains uncertain
09/25/08   Government
A disability epidemic among a railroad's retirees
09/23/08   Government
Ban the shorts? A BIG mistake!
09/19/08   Government
Florida's big insurance problem
09/13/08   Government
Paulson, Bernanke resisting aid for Lehman
09/13/08   Government
Abnormal returns from the U.S. senate
08/18/08   Government
U.S. turns away from decades of deregulation
08/01/08   Government
The Fed can't fix home prices
03/12/08   Government
Canada's total government fiscal performance
02/28/08   Government
Advice gets interesting
02/27/08   Government
Canadian budget in brief
02/27/08   Government
California exodus turns to stampede
02/22/08   Government
Rich states poor states
02/22/08   Government
Bush's bad mortgage medicine
12/07/07   Government
The history of labor day
09/03/07   Government
The escape of the enablers
08/20/07   Government
Dead men farming
07/25/07   Government
The OSC fraud squad
07/10/07   Government
How to run a budget like an idiot
06/18/07   Government
Mississippi fails to learn from history
02/16/07   Government
Hot air in Essex County wind power
02/06/07   Government
Dairy industry crushed innovator
12/11/06   Government
The New, Soft Paternalism
12/08/06   Government
Junk-food jihad
04/19/06   Government
Soft paternalism
04/07/06   Government
Card Money in New France
03/25/06   Government
More than a notional improvement
02/17/06   Government
The tip of the scandal iceberg?
02/17/06   Government
False hope
01/31/06   Government
Annuity anxiety
01/12/06   Government
SEC slaps standards on corporate fines
01/04/06   Government
The States' tobacco addiction
01/03/06   Government
Drowning in fines
12/08/05   Government
Moral hazard
10/14/05   Government
Can government build cities?
09/19/05   Government
Not in my backyard
09/07/05   Government
How to create a shortage
08/29/05   Government
Hardly in the public interest
08/07/05   Government
The gang of 17
05/27/05   Government
The regulators' best friend?
03/31/05   Government
Money for nothing
12/15/04   Government
Getting government money from your RESP
11/07/04   Government
The crime wave that wasn't
08/26/04   Government
OT pay: Winners and losers
08/22/04   Government
Fair dealing's advisor committee takes summer break
08/09/04   Government
Who's dumping on American consumers?
07/14/04   Government
The economics of water in the West
07/12/04   Government
In the shadows
06/19/04   Government
Pension pain
06/17/04   Government
Real debate during the campaign? Don't hold your breath
05/27/04   Government
Snowdrifts of debt
04/06/04   Government
Sorbara is now damaged goods as finance minister
02/27/04   Government
Heading for a fall, by fiat?
02/26/04   Government
Fannie's and Freddie's big fight
02/26/04   Government
Royal Group drops
02/26/04   Government
Investors looking to politicians for investment help
02/26/04   Government
The buck doesn't stop here
02/18/04   Government
Ex-CIBC trader arrested in fund probe
02/03/04   Government
Trashing money
01/22/04   Government
In defense of bank failures
12/05/03   Government
How we take from rich and give to poor
11/17/03   Government
Big 3 seek pension relief
11/10/03   Government
Hard money
10/15/03   Government
Sumner's forgotten classic
09/05/03   Government
A mortality warning for motorists
09/04/03   Government
The failure of the social market
08/19/03   Government
Did price controls work?
08/15/03   Government
Will conservation save us?
08/15/03   Government
Denmark: A Case Study in Social Democracy
07/22/03   Government
Inflation and the American Revolution
07/18/03   Government
Government protects potential killers
07/16/03   Government
Faster is not always better
07/11/03   Government
No golden days
07/03/03   Government
Bring back the guild system?
06/25/03   Government
Is the tax cut for real?
05/29/03   Government
$20 bill gets a facelift
05/13/03   Government
Fraud quiz launched
04/30/03   Government
New poverty traps
04/25/03   Government
The suits inside the battledress
04/18/03   Government
Convict leasing in Alabama
04/09/03   Government
Good money after bad
04/08/03   Government
CDIC's $60,000 limit doesn't cut it any more
02/26/03   Government
Retail investors unwelcome?
02/07/03   Government
FSA acts to halt stock sell-off
01/31/03   Government
Social security shortchange?
01/09/03   Government
Rob Kyle's lonely battle
01/03/03   Government
OSC: lawmaker, judge and executioner
12/08/02   Government
Radical fund reforms pitched
11/17/02   Government
RRSPs a long-term tax asset for Ottawa
10/25/02   Government
Beware the embittered investor
09/25/02   Government
Single financial services ombudsman office established
08/28/02   Government
SEC charges Adelphia and Rigas family
07/24/02   Government
The SEC's List
07/24/02   Government
Apple concentrate tariff
05/03/02   Government
Moral hazard psychology expands
04/20/02   Government
Smoking gun
03/03/02   Government
Killing the stock market
09/27/01   Government
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