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Article Archive: Shiller

Phishing for phools
11/21/15   Shiller
"Nobel Prize winner Robert J. Shiller visited Google's office in Cambridge, MA to discuss the book he co-authored with George Akerlof, 'Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception.'" [video]

Rising anxiety
08/30/15   Shiller
"It is entirely plausible that the shaking of investor complacency in recent days will, despite intermittent rebounds, take the market down significantly and within a year or two restore CAPE ratios to historical averages."

The mystery of lofty stock market elevations
08/16/14   Shiller
"I wrote with some concern about the high ratio in this space a little over a year ago, when it stood at around 23, far above its 20th-century average of 15.21. (CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted price-earnings.) Now it is above 25, a level that has been surpassed since 1881 in only three previous periods: the years clustered around 1929, 1999 and 2007. Major market drops followed those peaks."

Bob Shiller didn't kill the housing market
07/07/09   Shiller
"Two years into the housing bust, Shiller finally sees some faint rays of sunshine (that's just light, not green shoots yet). When the June Case-Shiller figures were released, he said they showed "striking improvement in the rate of decline." Asked to look ahead, he says, "My guess is that prices will continue to fall for a while, but at a slower pace, and then stabilize. We've become very speculative in our attitude toward real estate, so there could be another boom. But if so, it likely won't happen for another five to 10 years.""

An interview with Robert Shiller
02/20/09   Shiller
"How do we explain the fluctuations of the business cycle, or the existence of involuntary unemployment? In answering these questions, Shiller and Akerlof turn to John Maynard Keynes's notion of the animal spirits: "the restless and inconsistent element in the economy" that is not easily explained by reference to rational actors with simple economic motivations."

Challenging the crowd in whispers
11/02/08   Shiller
"I clearly remember a taxi driver in Miami explaining to me years ago that the housing bubble there was getting crazy. With all the construction under way, which he pointed out as we drove along, he said that there would surely be a glut in the market and, eventually, a disaster. But why weren.t the experts at the Fed saying such things? And why didn.t a consensus of economists at universities and other institutions warn that a crisis was on the way?"

A psychology lesson from the markets
08/26/07   Shiller
"Many people feel that they have discovered their true inner genius as investors and have relished the new self-expression and excitement. Investors across the world have been thinking that they are winners - not recognizing that much of their success is only a result of a boom. Declines in asset prices endanger this very self-esteem. That is why it is so hard to turn around investor attitudes once a downward psychology sets in. The Fed and other central banks do not have lithium or Prozac in their bag of remedies, and so cannot control it."

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