The overvalued dollar |
06/22/25 | | World |
"The US dollar remains historically overvalued, even after its recent reversal. Structural factors, cyclical trends, and shifting macroeconomic risks all point toward the potential for further declines in the coming years. Investors with underweight to international equities either due to home country, or recency, bias might want to reconsider that underweight."
|
No longer a serious country |
06/08/25 | | World |
"Imagine yourself as a foreigner considering investing in the United States. You may well know that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contains a 'revenge' provision that would allow the U.S. government to impose extra taxes on foreign investors whose home countries have policies America doesn't like. You probably know that one of Trump's advisers has suggested the forced conversion of short-term debt into century bonds. Once upon a time everyone would have dismissed these things as stuff that couldn't happen in America. Now? Who knows?"
|
Is South Korea the next Japan? |
06/02/25 | | World |
"South Korea's equity market looks like an exaggerated version of the Japanese stock market. Japan has a massive pool of companies trading at below 1x price-to-book, but South Korea has an even larger share. And while Japan is famous for its “lost decades,” the Japanese market has taken a sharp upward turn, while the South Korean market continues to languish."
|
No exception |
04/27/25 | | World |
"While it may be hard to remember, there have been multi-year periods when international stocks have outperformed the U.S. market. In fact, a chart of domestic vs. international stocks looks a little like a sine wave, with performance alternating over time. For that reason, I continue to recommend an allocation to international stocks."
|
Germans are reluctant to invest in stocks |
04/27/25 | | World |
"But one result stood out to me in this qualitative research. During the interviews, when people were asked why they didn't invest in equities, they often said (one in three respondents) that equities were too risky. But by far the most common reason why people wouldn't invest in stocks (about half of all respondents) is that they thought it is too expensive and too tedious to set up a stock or fund portfolio."
|
War on the world |
04/04/25 | | World |
"Dr. Rob Shapiro talks about Trump's trade war on the world." [video]
|
Back to the bronze age |
04/04/25 | | World |
"Advanced economies, even those, such as Germany, with large trade surpluses, have seen a steadily declining factory share. Advanced economies do better focusing on higher-value jobs such as AI, and on the requisite education for their workers, not on repressing their strengths in a futile effort to return to a proto-Bronze Age. Moreover, manufacturers are customers for a large share of US imports, thus the Trump tariffs punish the sectors he imagines he is helping."
|
Mad King Trump |
03/30/25 | | World |
"They expected a replay of the laissez-faire policies of Trump's first term - a lot of bombastic rhetoric but few real policy changes and a lot of small, quiet deregulatory moves. Instead, they got a very different Trump this time - one who's intent on breaking the American economy in the service of ideology."
|
UBS Yearbook 2025 |
03/10/25 | | World |
"With rising market concentration, the latest Global Investment Returns Yearbook reappraises the importance of diversification across asset classes to reduce portfolio risk."
|
Valuations reflect exceptionalism |
03/10/25 | | World |
"US exceptionalism provided the same explanation for the outperformance of US stocks in the 1990s. However, that regime changed. From 2000-2007, while the S&P 500 Index returned just 1.9% per annum (underperforming riskless one-month Treasury bills by 1.3% per annum), the MSCI EAFE Index returned 5.6% per annum, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index returned 15.3% per annum."
|
When are tariffs good? |
02/10/25 | | World |
"Tariffs help domestic manufacturers by protecting them from foreign competition, but they hurt them by driving up the cost of their imported components. This is one of the two big problems with tariffs - the other one being that they drive up consumer prices.But does this mean tariffs are always bad?"
|
Tariffs on Canada and Mexico are bad news |
02/02/25 | | World |
"it's certainly America's dumbest trade war in living memory. There's really no upside for the country here - it's not going to help domestic manufacturing, it's not going to make Americans better off, it's not going to materially affect the fentanyl problem, and on top of all the economic risks it's going to piss off U.S. allies and make America look terrible. I still hold out hope that the tariffs will be quickly revoked after some sort of symbolic concessions. But if not, then we'll know that we've left the era where Trump just blustered and preened, and entered a more frightening era where he starts lashing out and breaking things."
|
Trump gone soft |
02/02/25 | | World |
"Trump is imposing destructive (and self-destructive) tariffs on an ally that has done nothing wrong, while handling a rival and potential enemy with kid gloves. It is hard to believe that sheer stupidity - although there's plenty of that going on - can explain it."
|
Shameless robber barons |
02/01/25 | | World |
"If swindling pays, then it will not stop. The definition of the good society is one in which virtue pays. I can now add a slight variation to this; you cannot have a good society unless virtue pays."
|
International stocks |
02/01/25 | | World |
"This is why some have argued that U.S. stocks are experiencing DotCom Bubble 2.0. The euphoria surrounding AI today parallels that of internet companies in the late 1990s. While I see the similarities, the difference is that the earnings are much bigger this time."
|
Explaining international valuations |
01/27/25 | | World |
"Were a larger percentage of the valuation gap explained by fundamentals, we'd expect such a gap to persist. But given that the valuation gap is primarily explained simply by the location of listing, we think there's a strong reason to expect a convergence - and therefore to favor international over US-listed stocks, despite their terrible relative performance over the past decade."
|
Stuck at home |
11/24/24 | | World |
"The anti-foreign-stock drumbeat has grown louder with each additional year that international markets underperform U.S. shares. Indeed, even though foreign stocks beat U.S. shares in the 1970s, 1980s and 2000s, there are folks today who argue there's no reason to own foreign shares."
|
Misleading indicators |
11/24/24 | | World |
"Horstmeyer looked at 34 markets from around the world and examined the relationship between investment returns and GDP growth. What he found was that the relationship was nearly inverse"
|
Cheap water |
11/18/24 | | World |
"The point is not to claim that all the Sahara could receive cheap desalinated water, but rather that technology is already at a point where we could start building cities in the Sahara if we wanted to."
|
Fooled by randomness |
11/03/24 | | World |
"In economics, finance, politics, and most social sciences we create models with an error term and then conveniently ignore the error term as 'noise'. But nobody is ever taught how to interpret noise even though the noise part is arguably at least as important as the assumed signal."
|
The magic of low cost energy |
10/26/24 | | World |
"The western US is a parched opportunity to create millions of acres of prime land for the next billion Americans to live on. Only one ingredient is missing - water."
|
Underwater overseas |
10/06/24 | | World |
"But in the data we have, there's a clear pattern of U.S. and international stocks taking turns as the better performer. On a chart, their relative results look a bit like a sine wave, oscillating back and forth. International stocks saw periods of outperformance in the mid-1970s, the mid-80s and the mid-90s."
|
The great rotation 2 |
09/28/24 | | World |
"When the United States last exceeded 60% of global market capitalization in the 1960s, the US economy accounted for 40% of global GDP. Today, the US is similarly overrepresented in global market capitalization, but it only accounts for 26% of global GDP."
|
Solar's extraordinary growth |
09/23/24 | | World |
"Combined solar-plus-storage energy projects are already cheaper than new fossil fuel power plants in many parts of the world, and costs are poised to fall further."
|
Japan's stealth profit boom |
04/28/24 | | World |
"Today, roughly half of the Japanese companies have net cash balances, and almost none of their EBIT goes to interest there. By contrast, the lion's share of US 500 companies owe the banks money, and almost 15% of EBIT goes to lenders in America. Corporate Japan looks quite different today than it did a couple of decades ago, and we believe this has contributed to the bottom line. The magnitude of the financial statement impact of this transition for shareholders is roughly equivalent to eliminating headline corporate taxation entirely."
|
Rule, Britannia |
03/03/24 | | World |
"We think a long-term bet on upward mean reversion for Europe should also include a cap-weighted allocation to the UK because discounts are greater in Britain. UK stocks represent around 24% of aggregate tickers in the combined investment opportunity sets of the UK and Europe."
|
The right level of inflation |
02/03/24 | | World |
"once inflation surpasses 1%, views change quite quickly. The share of people who think inflation is too high and would better be lower starts to rise quickly, while the share of people who think inflation would be just right drops fast. This indicates that any change in the inflation target will likely trigger a significant public debate and will not be easy to communicate to the public."
|
Adding China? |
01/21/24 | | World |
"To the extent that your portfolio is diversified internationally, it's important to keep an eye on developments elsewhere. At the top of the list: China, which is now the world's second-largest economy."
|
Demographics are not the problem |
10/29/23 | | World |
"Many people (including me a few years ago) assumed that as Japan got older the Japanese would continue to stop working at the same age. But that doesn't seem to have been the case, and thus the number of available bodies in Japan has risen much more than expected. That reflects both better health and less strenuous jobs."
|
Shorting socialism |
10/29/23 | | World |
"Our research into the market experience of recent Latin American regimes seems to support the broader research on democratic norms, private property rights, and resulting market returns for countries that kept their distance from collective ownership whether via vote or vanguard. We continue to believe that investors trying to discern where to invest their capital over the decades should significantly discount markets that seem prone to policies advancing objectives that are mutually incompatible with those of capitalism."
|
The China model |
09/16/23 | | World |
"The Peking University professor Zhang Dandan recently estimated that the unemployment rate among youth ages 16 to 24 could be close to 50 percent, more than twice the official figure."
|
Japan in demand |
08/07/23 | | World |
"On the corporate front, buybacks are set to hit a second consecutive record-setting year in Japan, and dividend yields in deep-value Japanese stocks reached parity with the rest of the developed markets for the first time in 20 years this last year. With these developments already in the works, it's not too surprising to see global asset allocators run out of tangible reasons for the continued dramatic underweight on Japanese equities."
|
The depopulation bomb |
06/25/23 | | World |
"Stephen J. Shaw, data scientist and demographer, talks about the global decline in birth rates" [video]
|
U.S. investors underestimate risk |
05/14/23 | | World |
"The tendency to invest in domestic stocks may appear safer to Americans than the risk experienced by global stock investors. While it is important to use expected returns as the primary input in a financial plan, advisors should be aware that the possibility of extreme losses that could derail a plan isn't limited to the worst-case scenarios experienced only by U.S. investors."
|
European value |
04/08/23 | | World |
"the European market is effectively a large value index today, as it trades at 13x Price/Earnings, which is cheaper than the US large value index at 14x Price/Earnings"
|
Dan Wang on China |
03/05/23 | | World |
"What I did not sufficiently appreciate is that a state that would so casually decapitate a sector like online tutoring would also have the will to visit catastrophe upon whole cities. And fear of those moves is wearing on people. I perceive a fading sense of enthusiasm among businesspeople and youths."
|
The build-nothing country |
03/05/23 | | World |
"Ever day, new examples of this stasis pile up. In Berkeley, a plan to build student housing was just blocked by a court, which demanded that the university study whether students themselves constitute an environmental hazard. I wish I were kidding, but I'm not."
|
Sudden Stops |
12/11/22 | | World |
"South Korea screens as the most vulnerable country, due primarily to high levels of domestic credit (165% of GDP) as well as capital inflows measuring 5.7% of GDP. We estimate the probability of South Korea experiencing a crisis in the next quarter as 3.55%."
|
Democracy is good for returns |
08/27/22 | | World |
"Lei and Wisniewski's findings suggest that because stock investments in more autocratic countries have provided lower returns with higher volatility and have been accompanied by expropriation risk, investors should underweight these countries in their portfolios. Investors wishing to minimise expropriation risk should consider screening out autocracies from their portfolios, or at least minimise exposure to them."
|
Who owns sovereign debt |
07/10/22 | | World |
"The researchers found that during recessions foreign non-bank investors and domestic banks dramatically reduce their holdings."
|
Floodgate |
06/17/22 | | World |
"will the Fed have to hike rates far enough to cause a recession? The most probable answer now is yes, absolutely. Ben Bernanke in his 1997 paper showed that central banks tragically capitulate to fighting energy-driven inflationary episodes, only to learn later that hiking rates into such events roughly doubles the effect of tightening because higher oil prices eventually act like a tightening on their own."
|
Commonness of divorce in America |
06/12/22 | | World |
"Out of people who married at least once, the percentage of people who were married more than once or divorced approaches 50 percent as you get to age 60. But mortality appears to take precedence after that."
|
Deep roots |
04/03/22 | | World |
"Innovation in particular is hard to envision if you think of it happening all at once. When you think of it as tiny increments, where current innovations have roots planted decades ago, it's more believable - and the range of possible outcomes of what we might be achievable explodes."
|
Tyler Cowen on economic growth |
03/27/22 | | World |
"He visits the podcast to discuss the moral argument for high economic growth and discusses the relationship between growth and issues like general happiness, geopolitics, and the transition to a society with net zero carbon emissions." [video]
|
Crisis in Turkey |
03/13/22 | | World |
"We differentiated between two types of crises: global ones, defined as a 50% drawdown in emerging markets that happen in parallel with a 20% drawdown of the S&P 500, and idiosyncratic ones, where only the local market has drawn down. Our research suggests that value stocks are strong return generators in global crises, but US dollar-denominated government bonds are a more reliable bet in idiosyncratic crises."
|
Will the optimists triumph yet again? |
03/06/22 | | World |
"Despite the wars, depressions, and sicknesses of the last 100 years, we somehow pulled through. The optimists triumphed. As we face similar challenges in the days and years ahead, the question is: will the optimists triumph yet again?"
|
Surprise, shock, and uncertainty |
03/06/22 | | World |
"The world breaks every decade or so. There are so few exceptions to this it's astounding."
|
CS Yearbook 2022 |
02/26/22 | | World |
"This is an extract of the Yearbook 2022, produced in collaboration with the CSRI by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton. This year's edition focuses on diversification as a special topic and offers an extended dataset by adding three new markets." [pdf]
|
Japan's empire builders |
01/22/22 | | World |
"There may be a lot we can learn from the curious case of Japan's empire builders. Japanese companies both do far less M&A than US firms and seem to have had better results from the deals they do. Yet strangely, it is American consultants, bankers, and lawyers who believe their methods of doing business are superior, not the other way around."
|
The same stories, again |
11/06/21 | | World |
"No one knows how they'll respond to risk and setback until they're in the moment of terror."
|
A meta supply chain |
11/06/21 | | World |
"Oil prices continue to soar, but natural gas prices in Europe and Asia are the near term concern for the global economy and equity markets."
|
Buying cheap assets |
09/12/21 | | World |
"Robert Arnott will discuss why he believes this long era of U.S. large-cap growth dominance could be coming to an end and what could take its place." [video]
|
Turning Japanese |
07/25/21 | | World |
"Demographers now predict that by the latter half of the century or possibly earlier, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time."
|
In defense of global stocks |
07/19/21 | | World |
"As you can see, most global stock markets would have increased your wealth most of the time. The primary exceptions to this are Spain in the 1970s, Japan in the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, and a handful of countries in 1999 and after the year 2000. The worst performing market in the group is clearly Greece, which destroyed wealth at a rapid clip starting in the early 2000s onward."
|
Following Japan |
05/16/21 | | World |
"Obviously, this is not some romantic version of being active and productive in old age. Most of the time, older Japanese have to go back to work in some minimum wage jobs just to make ends meet."
|
Weighting on China |
05/16/21 | | World |
"Our conclusion is that, compared to Japanese public equities today, Chinese public equities are not technically public or equitable to the extent we can measure. They are massively more expensive and are probably subordinated to much more dubious lending practices than the government-approved ratings agencies would let on, according to S&P's mathematical standards. But we must admit that the trailing and one year forward growth is red-hot in the market that's marked-to-Marxist."
|
Money printing and inflation |
04/25/21 | | World |
"Intuitively, inflation should follow the money supply. The more money that circulates in an economy, the more demand for products and services, which should lead to higher prices. However, the economy consists of many interrelated variables and linear models frequently fail to represent reality."
|
The economic recovery in Japan |
03/21/21 | | World |
"Despite one quarter of value outpacing growth, LTM EBIT margins are still 52% below their 2018 peak. Because of this, upward pressure on stock prices should depend very little on multiple expansion. Simply getting back to 2018 operating income is a ~100% return if these value stocks can hold their current multiples."
|
The great forgetting |
02/14/21 | | World |
"Perhaps the most firmly established proposition in late 20th century macroeconomics is that the Great Inflation of 1966-81 was caused by central banks printing too much money. If that proposition is wrong, then I might just as well give up. Everything else I believe about macro hinges on that being true. If the Great Inflation wasn't caused by too much money, then what can macroeconomics tell us about the world?"
|
Emerging markets crisis investing |
02/14/21 | | World |
"Verdadcap's 55-page study of emerging market crises." [Book]
|
Stagnating growth |
01/17/21 | | World |
"Recently released Census Bureau population estimates show that from July 1, 2019 to July 1, 2020, the nation grew by just 0.35%. This is the lowest annual growth rate since at least 1900."
|
Children can't live here anymore |
01/10/21 | | World |
"The consistent policy of the US since the 1930s is to make life harder for successive generations. The unique and unusual growth post-WWII hid that, but declining growth is laying that bare now. Social Security was a very sweet deal then for old folks that has become a very sour deal now for young folks. Defined benefits plans are a thing of the past, replaced by modest encouragements to personal savings using defined contribution plans. And now we see the same in monetary policy, where suppressed interest rates relatively favor those who are older. And, increased indebtedness slows future GDP growth."
|
Locking it in |
11/14/20 | | World |
"Regardless of how long the current downturn lasts, we believe current oil prices are unsustainable as they trade below the breakeven price of most major producers."
|
The Global Market Portfolio |
11/08/20 | | World |
"The global market portfolio realizes an average compounded real return of 4.45%, with a standard deviation of annual returns of 11.2% from 1960 until 2017, gross of trading costs, taxes, and/or management fees."
|
Emerging concerns |
11/08/20 | | World |
"While the U.S. isn't perfect, many emerging markets countries have policies that should give investors pause. Some have authoritarian regimes. Others exhibit little respect for intellectual property and have shown a willingness to confiscate or nationalize businesses. Corporate governance and accounting rules are more lax."
|
Hidden world of failure |
10/24/20 | | World |
"This hidden world of failure helps to create a deeply flawed understanding of the universe. By not seeing failure, we misunderstand the elements of success."
|
Overnight tragedies |
10/24/20 | | World |
"An important thing that explains a lot of things is that good news takes time but bad news happens instantly."
|
Canned tuna got canned |
08/22/20 | | World |
"Price fixing is absolutely wrong, especially for a product that people depend on. That's the difference between them eating dinner and not eating dinner. That's canned tuna. We're not talking about bluefin toro that's served at Nobu."
|
U.S. stocks vs. world GDP |
08/16/20 | | World |
"With the stunning rise in big American tech stocks, the U.S. portion of this global equity market capitalization is nearing all-time highs. While there isn't necessarily a connection between stock values and economic output, it is a way to estimate sentiment and valuations."
|
The tab for the free lunch |
08/14/20 | | World |
"Today the tab for the free lunch has expanded well beyond the saver. The action of central banks committing to bail out capital markets on such a scale has stemmed market dysfunction but at the consequence of artificially shoring up asset prices, usurping the role of markets in pricing risk. New Age thinking of the sort currently proposed is on the cusp of a political takeover of the economy."
|
Fertility rate |
07/18/20 | | World |
"Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation showed the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 - and their study, published in the Lancet, projects it will fall below 1.7 by 2100."
|
Do civilisations collapse |
06/06/20 | | World |
"The idea that the Maya or Easter Islanders experienced an apocalyptic end makes for good television but bad archaeology"
|
The Simon Abundance Index 2020 |
05/03/20 | | World |
"The Earth was 570.9 percent more abundant in 2019 than it was in 1980."
|
Assessing the oil shock |
03/15/20 | | World |
"if we look beyond these short-term jitters, a supply shock like the one we witness at the moment should only be short-lived in nature. Russia will eventually have to fall in line with OPEC quotas at which point, oil prices should rise to the levels we saw last week. In the meantime, the lower oil prices will provide a small benefit to economic growth in developed countries that helps alleviate some of the negative consequences of the Covid-19 epidemic."
|
What a time to be alive |
01/03/20 | | World |
"The difference between an optimist and a pessimist isn't usually over substance. It's the time frame they're looking at. Problems are easier to spot today, but progress is almost always more powerful over time."
|
The best decade in human history |
12/27/19 | | World |
"Let nobody tell you that the second decade of the 21st century has been a bad time. We are living through the greatest improvement in human living standards in history. Extreme poverty has fallen below 10 per cent of the world's population for the first time. It was 60 per cent when I was born. Global inequality has been plunging as Africa and Asia experience faster economic growth than Europe and North America; child mortality has fallen to record low levels; famine virtually went extinct; malaria, polio and heart disease are all in decline."
|
Talk about nuclear |
07/07/19 | | World |
"Serious people are finally talking about decarbonizing national economies by mid-century, but such talk must be accompanied by credible plans - and no plan can be considered credible if it does not deal explicitly with nuclear power."
|
Cheap vs expensive countries |
05/27/19 | | World |
"An alternative to selecting single stocks is to focus on entire countries and rank these as cheap or expensive. The rationale for abnormal returns from buying cheap stocks should apply on country level as well. From the perspective of a current Value portfolio, this might result in replacing the shares of Deutsche Bank with indices for Greece or Portugal, which are two countries that have been trading cheaply in recent years given structural problems in their economies."
|
China, leverage, and values |
05/27/19 | | World |
"The truth is that the U.S. China relationship has been extremely one-sided for a very long time now: China buys the hardware it needs, and keeps all of the software opportunities for itself - and, of course, pursues software opportunities abroad. At the same time, U.S. acquiescence to this state of affairs has denied China the necessary motivation to actually make the investments necessary to replace U.S. hardware completely, leading to this specific moment in time."
|
What is the heck is going on |
03/11/19 | | World |
"The striking parallels between commerce, education, and politics isn't a coincidence. In fact, it's inevitable. In the past decade, the information environment has inverted from information scarcity to information abundance, and the effects are evident in every corner of society."
|
Bill Gates on Energy |
03/04/19 | | World |
Bill goes nuclear on energy. [video]
|
What else matters |
02/25/19 | | World |
"All economic growth is just population growth plus productivity growth. Half of that equation turns ugly over the next 30 years in a way it wasn't over the last 30 years. Or 50. Or 200."
|
The world is shrinking |
02/13/19 | | World |
"Dire predictions about an impending overpopulation crisis have loomed large in the human imagination for centuries. Darrel Bricker and John Ibbitson co-authors of, 'Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline,' say these predictions have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, the global population is on the decline." [video]
|
Venezuela is a socialist catastrophe |
01/28/19 | | World |
"In the meantime, the larger lesson of Venezuela's catastrophe should be learned. Twenty years of socialism, cheered by Corbyn, Klein, Chomsky and Co., led to the ruin of a nation. They may not be much embarrassed, much less personally harmed, by what they helped do. It's for the rest of us to take care that it never be done to us."
|
What I learned at work this year |
01/01/19 | | World |
"Global emissions of greenhouse gases went up in 2018. For me, that just reinforces the fact that the only way to prevent the worst climate-change scenarios is to get some breakthroughs in clean energy."
|
Factfulness |
12/17/18 | | World |
"let's clear up some false impressions of the world around us - that 'everything is getting worse.' If you don't think this belief is widespread, let me give you the results of a quiz designed by Mr. Rosling."
|
A fifth of China's homes are empty |
11/12/18 | | World |
"Soon-to-be-published research will show roughly 22 percent of China's urban housing stock is unoccupied, according to Professor Gan Li, who runs the main nationwide study. That adds up to more than 50 million empty homes, he said."
|
Won in translation |
11/01/18 | | World |
"We visited a few times and fell in love, particularly with the city of Granada. The next logical step: determining if we could swing it financially."
|
The curious case for emerging markets |
09/24/18 | | World |
"Since the inception of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in 1988 through August of this year, EM returned 10.84% annualized while the S&P 500 returned 10.80%. Despite the eerily similar gains, a blend of the two, rebalanced annually, would have yielded better results."
|
P/E 10 works better in some markets |
09/24/18 | | World |
"the more domestically-concentrated a given market is, the less the explanatory power of its P/E 10"
|
What's killing rural Canada |
08/28/18 | | World |
"Crime, opioid abuse, boarded-up businesses and fleeing populations are destroying the country's heartland."
|
Dematerialization |
05/22/18 | | World |
"Humans want more and more all the time, which seems like bad news. Aren't we going to use up all the natural resources and pollute the Earth as we keep growing? MIT scientist, Andrew McAfee, advocates that the answer is actually 'no.' Evidence from America shows that, amazingly enough, we are now dematerializing: using fewer resources year after year and treading more lightly on the planet." [video]
|
Venezuela crumbles |
08/28/17 | | World |
"In 2001 Venezuela was the richest country in South America; it is now among the poorest."
|
Gray Rhinos threaten China |
07/23/17 | | World |
"Let the West worry about so-called black swans, rare and unexpected events that can upset financial markets. China is more concerned about 'gray rhinos' - large and visible problems in the economy that are ignored until they start moving fast."
|
Venezuela leaps towards dictatorship |
04/02/17 | | World |
"The regime is in desperate need of the money that such ventures bring. Although Venezuela has the world's largest proven reserves of oil, the socialists have mismanaged the economy so badly that people struggle to buy food and hospitals are bare of medicines."
|
Big Mac index |
01/15/17 | | World |
"In Big Mac terms, the Mexican peso is undervalued by a whacking 55.9% against the greenback. This week it also plumbed a record low as Mr Trump reiterated some of his campaign threats against Mexico. The peso has lost a tenth of its value against the dollar since November. Of big countries, only Russia offers a cheaper Big Mac, in dollar terms, even though the rouble has strengthened over the past year."
|
The anonymous billionaire |
12/24/16 | | World |
"Luiz Alves Paes de Barros is something of an enigma in Sao Paulo's financial circles. At 69, he's known around town as the 'anonymous billionaire' for quietly amassing a fortune by wagering on stocks almost no one else seemed to want."
|
The ace of spades |
12/17/16 | | World |
"On his wall, Eric has a framed Cuban cigar, he starts his story by explaining the significance of that cigar."
|
Canada's innovation problem |
12/11/16 | | World |
"Why do we export so many world-class business ideas to the rest of the world?"
|
Venezuela, a failing state |
11/27/16 | | World |
How Venezuela imploded |
10/29/16 | | World |
Howard Marks on Brexit |
06/25/16 | | World |
Trump, trade and the China shock |
04/03/16 | | World |
Economic world history |
10/24/15 | | World |
Zombie factories |
08/30/15 | | World |
Hyperinflation in Venezuela |
08/26/15 | | World |
How silver wrecked China |
08/26/15 | | World |
Goodbye to all that |
08/22/15 | | World |
China's long Minsky moment |
08/16/15 | | World |
Burger benchmark finds greenback too dear |
07/18/15 | | World |
Could China be the next Japan? |
07/18/15 | | World |
China crash bigger than subprime |
07/18/15 | | World |
Successful Austerians |
07/18/15 | | World |
Poorer than Greece |
07/12/15 | | World |
Greece's culture of victimhood |
07/12/15 | | World |
Germans call for Greece to leave |
07/05/15 | | World |
China's stockmarket crash |
07/05/15 | | World |
Why the Greek bailout failed |
07/05/15 | | World |
Greece lost the public relations battle |
07/04/15 | | World |
Tsipras's wild promises |
07/04/15 | | World |
Greece closes banks |
06/28/15 | | World |
Close to the threshold |
06/27/15 | | World |
Bruce Greenwald on the great recession |
06/13/15 | | World |
Risky bet on Greece |
06/10/15 | | World |
Greece saunters across the autobahn |
05/07/15 | | World |
On the Gredge |
04/23/15 | | World |
Austerity is not Greece's Problem |
03/07/15 | | World |
What now for Greece? |
01/25/15 | | World |
Venezuela should be rich |
01/24/15 | | World |
The spectre of a Grexit |
01/12/15 | | World |
Harsh debt dynamics |
12/21/14 | | World |
Canada finds oil route around Obama |
10/11/14 | | World |
The great Chinese exodus |
08/24/14 | | World |
Russian history is on our side |
05/25/14 | | World |
The slaves of Eritrea |
05/10/14 | | World |
Keystone's frustrator-in-chief |
04/27/14 | | World |
Global solar dominance in sight |
04/12/14 | | World |
China's steelmakers into shadow banking |
04/12/14 | | World |
Slice of life |
03/15/14 | | World |
Bill Gates interview |
03/15/14 | | World |
The Big Mac index |
01/26/14 | | World |
How did Zimbabwe become so poor |
01/12/14 | | World |
Paul Krugman's blind spot |
11/17/13 | | World |
America has changed the way it measures GDP |
08/04/13 | | World |
Why Buffett bailed on India |
07/28/13 | | World |
Slow ideas |
07/28/13 | | World |
Chinese stocks earn 1% per year |
07/14/13 | | World |
Mind the expectations gap |
07/06/13 | | World |
Lottery raided |
07/06/13 | | World |
The toilet paper revolution |
05/19/13 | | World |
Will Portugal be the first one out? |
04/14/13 | | World |
Why Canada can avoid banking crises |
04/10/13 | | World |
Housing and the never-ending recession |
04/07/13 | | World |
Cyprus details heavy losses for bank customers |
03/30/13 | | World |
Cyprus said to reach deal |
03/24/13 | | World |
Unfair, short-sighted and self-defeating |
03/16/13 | | World |
Levy on bank deposits |
03/16/13 | | World |
Hugo Chavez: Good timing, not good leadership |
03/10/13 | | World |
Chavez was bad for Venezuela |
03/08/13 | | World |
Fewer, richer, greener |
01/20/13 | | World |
National balance sheets |
01/19/13 | | World |
Hey, small spender |
10/06/12 | | World |
Hayek on the standing committee |
09/22/12 | | World |
Krugman's Baltic problem |
09/22/12 | | World |
A conversation with Ray Dalio |
09/14/12 | | World |
The weatherman is not a moron |
09/08/12 | | World |
China's growing economic crisis |
08/31/12 | | World |
Apocalypse not |
08/18/12 | | World |
Looking at China's problems |
08/12/12 | | World |
A Greek story |
07/28/12 | | World |
Ideologue vs. Estonia |
07/21/12 | | World |
10 reasons countries fall apart |
06/30/12 | | World |
Sand in the gears |
06/27/12 | | World |
A glimmer of hope? |
06/18/12 | | World |
Euro explosion |
06/17/12 | | World |
Europe really is on the brink |
06/12/12 | | World |
Exhausting the Earth's resources? |
06/09/12 | | World |
Turning slumdogs into millionaires |
06/07/12 | | World |
Euro breakup precedent |
06/07/12 | | World |
A contrarian moment |
06/01/12 | | World |
Austerity and debt realism |
06/01/12 | | World |
A run they cannot stop |
05/28/12 | | World |
Leaving the Euro |
05/16/12 | | World |
The crazy way Europe measures inflation |
05/16/12 | | World |
What price a slowing population? |
05/16/12 | | World |
Lessons of the recession |
05/03/12 | | World |
Price controls in action |
04/30/12 | | World |
Richard Koo presentation |
04/14/12 | | World |
Greece: same old high yields |
03/17/12 | | World |
The end of Asia's demographic dividend |
03/17/12 | | World |
Goodnight Sunshine |
02/20/12 | | World |
Wodehouse's lead pipe |
12/19/11 | | World |
China local debts dwarf official data |
12/19/11 | | World |
Chavez rolls back seizures |
12/17/11 | | World |
China's hard landing |
12/04/11 | | World |
Is this really the end? |
11/26/11 | | World |
China's vanishing factory bosses |
11/05/11 | | World |
Bill Gates changes the world again |
11/03/11 | | World |
Irish see opportunity |
10/27/11 | | World |
The euro deal |
10/27/11 | | World |
Michael Pettis talks China |
10/24/11 | | World |
Why China won't conquer the world |
10/13/11 | | World |
California and bust |
09/30/11 | | World |
Ireland recovers as Greece sinks |
09/21/11 | | World |
Fewer |
08/22/11 | | World |
Generation Fd |
08/13/11 | | World |
It's the economy, dummkopf! |
08/10/11 | | World |
Once Greece goes... |
07/09/11 | | World |
Fear and loathing in the Eurozone |
07/04/11 | | World |
Beware China's political bubble |
06/19/11 | | World |
Is Sino-Forest a Sino-Fraud? |
06/13/11 | | World |
Shale boom in oil |
05/28/11 | | World |
Fair-trade coffee fix |
05/15/11 | | World |
Fantastic pieces of journalism |
05/14/11 | | World |
More denial |
05/11/11 | | World |
Three cheers for the cheapeners |
05/09/11 | | World |
Will Canada be going Dutch? |
04/18/11 | | World |
Property bubble hits the grave |
04/09/11 | | World |
Stepping on the Gas |
04/02/11 | | World |
Is ethanol to blame for global unrest |
03/29/11 | | World |
The Canada bubble |
03/18/11 | | World |
Made in America |
03/08/11 | | World |
The Myth of Japan's 'Lost Decades' |
02/28/11 | | World |
When Irish Eyes Are Crying |
02/02/11 | | World |
Lies, flame-grilled lies and statistics |
01/28/11 | | World |
China is a bubble close to bursting |
01/23/11 | | World |
Coming in from the cold |
12/19/10 | | World |
Toronto a city of socioeconomic extremes |
12/19/10 | | World |
China's credit bubble |
12/07/10 | | World |
200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes |
12/05/10 | | World |
The slaying of the Celtic Tiger |
11/14/10 | | World |
Cultures of Impunity |
11/10/10 | | World |
Ireland is effectively insolvent |
11/09/10 | | World |
The Man Who Saved the Whales |
11/06/10 | | World |
More from less for more |
10/28/10 | | World |
Secret Past of Chinese Stocks |
10/23/10 | | World |
The Future of Fish |
10/23/10 | | World |
Ridley and the rational optimist |
10/21/10 | | World |
Spain's Solar on Edge of Bankruptcy |
10/19/10 | | World |
How Fake Money Saved Brazil |
10/05/10 | | World |
A Greek Bankruptcy Is Unavoidable |
10/05/10 | | World |
China Metal Monopoly |
09/30/10 | | World |
Beware of Greeks bearing bonds |
09/07/10 | | World |
Britain reels as austerity begins |
08/23/10 | | World |
Is giving bad!? |
08/08/10 | | World |
Tracing oil reserves |
08/04/10 | | World |
Small reactors? |
07/22/10 | | World |
Down with doom |
07/07/10 | | World |
The Andy Grove essay |
07/04/10 | | World |
The fog of war |
06/22/10 | | World |
Paid not to marry |
06/21/10 | | World |
Canada key to trade |
06/18/10 | | World |
The coal age continues |
06/18/10 | | World |
The $600 billion challenge |
06/16/10 | | World |
How to destroy an industry |
06/15/10 | | World |
The strange survival of ink |
06/13/10 | | World |
A gambling man |
06/13/10 | | World |
A breakthrough in China |
06/13/10 | | World |
Red tape hamstrings Greek growth |
05/29/10 | | World |
Easy money, hard truths |
05/27/10 | | World |
Shale gas |
05/25/10 | | World |
How will Greece get off the dole? |
05/23/10 | | World |
The very bad luck of the Irish |
05/20/10 | | World |
Rogoff criticizes debt strategies |
05/19/10 | | World |
Malcolm Gladwell keynote address |
05/17/10 | | World |
The difficult choices facing Europe |
05/16/10 | | World |
The case for doom and gloom |
05/12/10 | | World |
The Goldilocks recovery |
05/09/10 | | World |
The future of public debt |
05/08/10 | | World |
Europe finds the old rules still apply |
05/06/10 | | World |
Greek wealth and taxes |
05/02/10 | | World |
The arithmetic of bank solvency |
04/29/10 | | World |
The X PRIZE and Risk |
04/28/10 | | World |
The party's over |
04/25/10 | | World |
James Chanos interview |
04/15/10 | | World |
Time to rebalance |
04/04/10 | | World |
An unconventional glut |
03/17/10 | | World |
Is China actually bankrupt? |
03/12/10 | | World |
The Greek debt bubble |
03/12/10 | | World |
Canada's marvelous mortgage system |
02/26/10 | | World |
Dubai 1,000 Times |
02/22/10 | | World |
Greek tax-dodgers |
02/16/10 | | World |
Greece's Goldman Sachs swaps |
02/16/10 | | World |
Greece: our debt, your problem |
02/16/10 | | World |
Short Canada |
02/10/10 | | World |
Japan fades into the future |
02/10/10 | | World |
Europe risks another depression |
02/08/10 | | World |
What Toronto can teach New York and London |
02/01/10 | | World |
A Greek bailout, and soon? |
01/29/10 | | World |
Oil windfalls and living standards |
01/24/10 | | World |
China's silicon ceiling |
01/18/10 | | World |
How America can rise again |
01/18/10 | | World |
In China, fear of a real estate bubble |
01/12/10 | | World |
Endless oil |
01/09/10 | | World |
Chavez devalues Bolivar 50% |
01/09/10 | | World |
The Iceland rebellion |
01/07/10 | | World |
Crash in China |
01/07/10 | | World |
Our white collar nation |
01/05/10 | | World |
Note to Kevin O'Leary |
01/05/10 | | World |
Fruitful decade for many in the world |
01/03/10 | | World |
Texas' banks hold lessons |
12/29/09 | | World |
A stock trade a day keeps stress away |
12/14/09 | | World |
An energy answer in the shale below? |
12/03/09 | | World |
Coal world |
12/03/09 | | World |
Dangers of an overheated China |
11/29/09 | | World |
A six thousand year-old bubble |
11/13/09 | | World |
U.S. is destroying manufacturing |
11/12/09 | | World |
Big-spending, high-taxing, lousy-services paradigm |
11/10/09 | | World |
Detroit: Urban Laboratory |
11/10/09 | | World |
The quiet death of the Kyoto protocol |
11/06/09 | | World |
What's killing California? |
10/27/09 | | World |
Hu versus Sarkozy |
10/25/09 | | World |
After Empire |
10/02/09 | | World |
The ghost fleet of the recession |
09/13/09 | | World |
The man who saved billions |
09/13/09 | | World |
Peak oil as a behavioral problem |
09/10/09 | | World |
Mixing solar with coal |
09/04/09 | | World |
The growth illusion |
09/03/09 | | World |
Our big chance |
08/27/09 | | World |
'Peak oil' is a waste of energy |
08/25/09 | | World |
It's still the one |
08/24/09 | | World |
Cruel windfall |
08/08/09 | | World |
Why Japan isn't rising |
08/06/09 | | World |
The rule of law and the wealth of nations |
08/01/09 | | World |
Fiscal ruin of the Western world beckons |
07/23/09 | | World |
Think again: Asia's rise |
07/05/09 | | World |
A tale of two depressions |
06/24/09 | | World |
The story of 9 failed currencies |
06/18/09 | | World |
Buy an S.U.V., save the planet |
06/02/09 | | World |
Hasta la vista, forests. Wood is the new coal |
06/02/09 | | World |
Great Right North |
05/25/09 | | World |
The great ethanol scam |
05/25/09 | | World |
Renewable energy - our downfall? |
05/25/09 | | World |
Argentina: The superpower that never was |
05/25/09 | | World |
Energy myths and realities |
05/16/09 | | World |
What if global-warming fears are overblown? |
05/14/09 | | World |
Getting real on wind and solar |
04/24/09 | | World |
The incredible shrinking economy |
04/02/09 | | World |
How Zimbabwe slew hyperinflation |
03/23/09 | | World |
Argentina downgraded |
03/23/09 | | World |
Wall Street on the tundra |
03/03/09 | | World |
California's meltdown |
02/21/09 | | World |
How California became France |
02/21/09 | | World |
For Japan, a long, slow slide |
02/17/09 | | World |
Do you have a crush on Canada? |
02/11/09 | | World |
Worthwhile Canadian initiative |
02/11/09 | | World |
Fish shares and sharing fish |
02/05/09 | | World |
IBM to move laid off workers to India |
02/03/09 | | World |
Hugo crawls back |
01/16/09 | | World |
Marbella's billionaire spent bribes |
01/07/09 | | World |
Trickledown meltdown |
12/28/08 | | World |
The great unraveling |
12/17/08 | | World |
Suddenly vulnerable |
12/13/08 | | World |
Imbalances threaten survival of liberal trade |
12/07/08 | | World |
Are we watching the death of OPEC? |
12/03/08 | | World |
The next crisis -- Africa |
11/20/08 | | World |
A sea of unwanted imports |
11/20/08 | | World |
An axis in need of oiling |
10/23/08 | | World |
Russia and the crisis |
10/22/08 | | World |
Why the ECB can't fix Europe |
10/09/08 | | World |
Iceland takes over Kaupthing |
10/09/08 | | World |
Stopping a financial crisis, the Swedish way |
09/23/08 | | World |
CEO murdered by mob of sacked Indian workers |
09/23/08 | | World |
Top-earning pirates |
09/21/08 | | World |
Russian emergency funding fails to halt stock rout |
09/17/08 | | World |
What your global neighbors are buying |
09/08/08 | | World |
The 65 mpg Ford the U.S. can't have |
09/05/08 | | World |
Clouds gather again over the Pampas |
08/22/08 | | World |
The key to happiness is freedom not income |
08/19/08 | | World |
The Big Mac index |
07/27/08 | | World |
European recession looms |
07/15/08 | | World |
How Canada stole the American Dream |
06/28/08 | | World |
The hidden costs of fuel subsidies |
06/07/08 | | World |
Why oil prices will tank |
06/06/08 | | World |
From communism to environmentalism |
06/03/08 | | World |
An old enemy rears its head |
05/23/08 | | World |
The question of global warming |
05/22/08 | | World |
Dead end for free trade |
05/17/08 | | World |
Malthus, the false prophet |
05/14/08 | | World |
The wonder fish |
04/21/08 | | World |
Hijacking the Hermitage Fund |
04/07/08 | | World |
Spanish property auction flop |
04/04/08 | | World |
The clean energy scam |
03/30/08 | | World |
Out of print |
03/30/08 | | World |
Shanghaied |
11/22/07 | | World |
Global warming delusions |
10/18/07 | | World |
Freedom, not climate, is at risk |
06/15/07 | | World |
Globalization erodes product safety |
06/14/07 | | World |
Crouching fraud, hidden losses |
03/12/07 | | World |
The global gusher |
01/07/07 | | World |
The reluctant briber |
11/03/06 | | World |
A tale of two factories |
09/14/06 | | World |
The billionaire prince who owns Canada's treasures |
07/17/06 | | World |
The case of the unpaid parking ticket |
07/08/06 | | World |
Bolton v Gore |
06/22/06 | | World |
The rich, the poor and the growing gap |
06/18/06 | | World |
How accurate are your pet pundits? |
06/07/06 | | World |
McCurrencies |
05/27/06 | | World |
Steady as she goes |
05/09/06 | | World |
A practical man |
05/04/06 | | World |
Power without responsibility |
04/28/06 | | World |
China's reality is both boom and gloom |
04/19/06 | | World |
The Hermit Kings |
03/31/06 | | World |
Gloom in France |
02/07/06 | | World |
Deep trouble |
12/16/05 | | World |
Europe's farm follies |
12/09/05 | | World |
Arab world, Iraq and al-Qaeda |
11/30/05 | | World |
Held hostage in China |
10/28/05 | | World |
The sun also rises |
10/08/05 | | World |
The Caribbean and sugar |
09/27/05 | | World |
The myth of China Inc |
09/01/05 | | World |
Oil and the global economy |
08/27/05 | | World |
For jihadist, read anarchist |
08/18/05 | | World |
Boom and bust at sea |
08/18/05 | | World |
After Fahd, Abdullah. But then? |
08/06/05 | | World |
China severs link to dollar |
07/21/05 | | World |
America's great sorting out |
07/14/05 | | World |
Japan's economy: more mountains to climb |
07/14/05 | | World |
The corporate savings glut |
07/09/05 | | World |
Outsourcing: Getting the measure of it |
07/03/05 | | World |
Fast food and strong currencies |
06/10/05 | | World |
Lula's mid-term blues |
06/03/05 | | World |
The frog and the ox |
06/03/05 | | World |
Will the walls come falling down? |
04/21/05 | | World |
Shaking up corporate Japan |
03/23/05 | | World |
Starkers |
03/20/05 | | World |
Global house prices: Still want to buy? |
03/03/05 | | World |
Where's my $58 million, Madame Wu? |
02/01/05 | | World |
First Chinese cars to hit U.S. shores |
01/02/05 | | World |
Meritocracy in America |
01/02/05 | | World |
Keeping in with niche market leaders |
12/26/04 | | World |
We are never prepared by what we expect |
12/16/04 | | World |
Flimsy foundations |
12/12/04 | | World |
Crash landing coming for China |
11/28/04 | | World |
Short haircuts all round |
11/03/04 | | World |
Close, but no cigar |
11/03/04 | | World |
Five key economic challenges for Bush |
11/03/04 | | World |
The wolf at the door |
11/01/04 | | World |
China misconceptions |
10/26/04 | | World |
Hudson's warmer bay |
10/09/04 | | World |
The dragon and the eagle |
09/30/04 | | World |
Kyoto a-go-go |
09/30/04 | | World |
Dead firms walking |
09/24/04 | | World |
Roadblocks to small business curb growth |
09/14/04 | | World |
The sun also sets |
09/09/04 | | World |
Safety matters |
09/03/04 | | World |
Consuming passions |
08/22/04 | | World |
For richer or for poorer? |
08/09/04 | | World |
Emerging markets, emerging risks |
07/09/04 | | World |
The fallacies of shrimp protectionism |
06/29/04 | | World |
Institutions as the cause of growth |
06/24/04 | | World |
Hair-raising |
06/07/04 | | World |
The march on Moscow |
06/02/04 | | World |
Food for thought |
05/28/04 | | World |
The bonds from Brazil |
05/16/04 | | World |
Citadels of dead capital |
04/26/04 | | World |
Eastward ho! |
04/17/04 | | World |
Behind the mask |
03/19/04 | | World |
Haier's purpose |
03/18/04 | | World |
Things you can drop on your foot |
03/04/04 | | World |
The hungry dragon |
02/20/04 | | World |
Wirtschaftsblunder |
02/20/04 | | World |
A renewed force in Asia |
02/18/04 | | World |
Dollar drinking in the Last Chance Saloon |
02/17/04 | | World |
Let the dollar drop |
02/08/04 | | World |
Sickness or symptom? |
02/05/04 | | World |
Put down that tool |
01/09/04 | | World |
Ditching the peace |
01/02/04 | | World |
A faded green |
12/07/03 | | World |
Scrapped |
12/07/03 | | World |
Ripples from a Japanese bank collapse |
12/04/03 | | World |
I'd buy that for a dollar (and two dimes) |
12/01/03 | | World |
Fed up with protectionism |
11/22/03 | | World |
The dragon binges |
11/21/03 | | World |
Sparks fly over steel |
11/14/03 | | World |
Playing different games |
11/10/03 | | World |
Vlad the impaler |
10/31/03 | | World |
The end of the Oil Age |
10/24/03 | | World |
Engine trouble |
10/04/03 | | World |
Voters can be such a nuisance |
09/22/03 | | World |
Ratings agencies see danger in yuan float |
09/17/03 | | World |
Tequila sunset in Cancun |
09/15/03 | | World |
WTO entry helps China pull it off |
08/24/03 | | World |
Different this time, maybe |
08/23/03 | | World |
Asia starts to gasp for energy |
08/21/03 | | World |
Lion cubs on a wire |
08/18/03 | | World |
The poor are the solution, not the problem |
08/18/03 | | World |
The promise of a blue revolution |
08/10/03 | | World |
Europe's population implosion |
07/21/03 | | World |
Darkness falls on Tokyo |
07/18/03 | | World |
Fear of floating |
07/13/03 | | World |
Germany's euro test |
06/19/03 | | World |
The perils of a weak dollar |
05/28/03 | | World |
Only the weak survive |
05/20/03 | | World |
Painful side-effects |
05/02/03 | | World |
Horror stories |
03/15/03 | | World |
BoJ takes gamble to avert financial crisis |
09/25/02 | | World |
Telecoms troubles |
09/23/02 | | World |
Japanese government bond auction fails |
09/21/02 | | World |